{
 "name": "P34 candidate markets — the waiting list",
 "version": "2026-09-27",
 "description": "Markets screened as candidates for the computable-markets catalogue. Proposed blueprints, not catalogue entries: none of these carries a catalogue state and none is in markets.json.",
 "scoring": {
  "criteria": [
   "logistics",
   "density",
   "access",
   "longtail",
   "breadth",
   "partial_obs",
   "consumption",
   "cadence",
   "ops_dependence"
  ],
  "scale": "0-3 per criterion",
  "structural_fit": "sum(scores)/27*100 at equal weights",
  "gate_multiplier": "product over the four HyperC criteria: Y=1.0, P=0.9, N=0.6",
  "perimeter_multiplier": {
   "None": 1.0,
   "Licence / registration (cheap)": 0.95,
   "Regulated commerce — gated launch": 0.7,
   "Platform-rule / IP — flag": 0.6,
   "Financial / securities — separate perimeter": 0.4,
   "Prohibited / sanctions / contract-barred": 0.1
  },
  "actionable_score": "structural_fit * gate_multiplier * perimeter_multiplier"
 },
 "markets": [
  {
   "rank": 1,
   "id": "govsurplus",
   "name": "Government & municipal surplus auctions (GovDeals, GSA Auctions, GovPlanet/DLA)",
   "sector": "Liquidation",
   "group": "t2",
   "overlap": "Adjacent: Heavy equipment auctions; Dealer used-car auctions; 'Surplus laptops' — as a unified supply source it is new",
   "structural_fit": 92.6,
   "gate_multiplier": 1.0,
   "perimeter": "",
   "perimeter_multiplier": 1.0,
   "actionable_score": 92.6,
   "access": 3,
   "scale": "GovDeals 15,000–25,000 active lots/day, 900+ categories, 4.5M+ auctions completed; GovPlanet ~3.5k gov items + 7.4k trucks/trailers.",
   "data": "GovDeals/GSA closed results; BidProwl aggregates sold prices across 27 sources (GSA vehicle median $4,314, IQR $1,050–8,565, n=188).",
   "menu": "Lot (category × item × condition photos × location × removal deadline) × bid",
   "consumption": 1,
   "risk": "As-is, photo-only; hard removal deadlines and pickup logistics decide margin; titling.",
   "experiment": "Use BidProwl-class archives + a reseller's bid log (won/lost) with pickup cost; score lots within 300 miles; measure abstention on title-issue lots.",
   "logistics": 3,
   "density": 3,
   "longtail": 3,
   "breadth": 3,
   "partial_obs": 3,
   "cadence": 3,
   "ops_dependence": 3,
   "gate_menu": "Y",
   "gate_outcome": "Y",
   "gate_constraints": "Y",
   "gate_feedback": "Y",
   "reject_reasons": "Attention · Capacity · Operational fit",
   "sales_tape": "Win → pay → pickup (deadline) → title/transport → resale over weeks → storage/abandonment fees",
   "confidence": "high",
   "sources": "https://featured.govdeals.com/by-the-numbers | https://bidprowl.com/guides/govdeals-faq | https://govauctions.app/guides/gsa-auctions-faq | https://www.govplanet.com/buyer-faq"
  },
  {
   "rank": 2,
   "id": "flowers",
   "name": "Cut-flower & plant clock auctions (Royal FloraHolland, Plantion)",
   "sector": "Perishables",
   "group": "industrial",
   "overlap": "New — no floral entry in the 135",
   "structural_fit": 92.6,
   "gate_multiplier": 1.0,
   "perimeter": "",
   "perimeter_multiplier": 0.95,
   "actionable_score": 88.0,
   "access": 2,
   "scale": "2025 product turnover €5.4B; clock >€2B on ~5bn stems; 18,930 distinct products auctioned; >100,000 transactions/day; 35 clocks; ~6,000 growers; 4 hubs.",
   "data": "Floriday platform + API; RFH weekly price stats (members); public annual report; clock shows every lot incl. the ones you passed.",
   "menu": "Lot (product × grade × grower × day) × trolleys × clock price / pre-sale offer",
   "consumption": 3,
   "risk": "Turnover minimum + Dutch entity for a new operator; unsold/'doorgedraaid' rates not published; vase-life and downstream sell-through hidden at purchase.",
   "experiment": "Log 4 weeks of clock lots for 200 products incl. passes; shadow-score against a wholesaler's realised sales; measure predicted vs realised margin by product/grade.",
   "logistics": 3,
   "density": 3,
   "longtail": 3,
   "breadth": 3,
   "partial_obs": 2,
   "cadence": 3,
   "ops_dependence": 3,
   "gate_menu": "Y",
   "gate_outcome": "Y",
   "gate_constraints": "Y",
   "gate_feedback": "Y",
   "reject_reasons": "Attention · Time · Capacity",
   "sales_tape": "Clock purchase → cold-chain dispatch → customer sale (florist/exporter) → returns/credit → destruction of unsold stems",
   "confidence": "high",
   "sources": "https://www.royalfloraholland.com/en/buying-2/marketplace/become-a-customer | https://www.floraldaily.com/article/9801629/nl-almost-eur5-billion-in-flowers-and-plants-traded-via-the-clock-in-2025/ | https://www.royalfloraholland.com/en/news-2026/week-13/royal-floraholland-succesvol-2025-productomzet-groeit-naar-5-4-miljard-euro"
  },
  {
   "rank": 3,
   "id": "faire",
   "name": "Independent-retail wholesale buying on Faire / Ankorstore",
   "sector": "Commerce",
   "group": "core",
   "overlap": "Adjacent: Amazon wholesale; E1 'Overlooked supplier catalogue' — the small-retailer, marketplace-supply version",
   "structural_fit": 85.2,
   "gate_multiplier": 1.0,
   "perimeter": "",
   "perimeter_multiplier": 1.0,
   "actionable_score": 85.2,
   "access": 3,
   "scale": "Faire: 100,000+ brands; Ankorstore FY2025: 30,000+ brands, 300,000+ retailers, €1.2B GMV, €160 AOV, ~45% repeat.",
   "data": "No retailer-side API; own order history + store POS; platform 'bestseller' badges only.",
   "menu": "Catalogue line (brand × SKU × case size × wholesale price × terms) × order qty — the whole catalogue you did not order is the reject set",
   "consumption": 3,
   "risk": "Sell-through only visible in own POS; taste-driven demand; catalogue snapshots needed for declined set; net-60 hides cash cost.",
   "experiment": "Independent retailer: 18 months of Faire orders + weekly catalogue snapshots + POS sell-through; shadow-score reorders and first-time brands; measure abstention on slow categories.",
   "logistics": 1,
   "density": 3,
   "longtail": 3,
   "breadth": 3,
   "partial_obs": 2,
   "cadence": 2,
   "ops_dependence": 3,
   "gate_menu": "Y",
   "gate_outcome": "Y",
   "gate_constraints": "Y",
   "gate_feedback": "Y",
   "reject_reasons": "Attention · Prediction · Scale",
   "sales_tape": "Order → receipt → store sell-through over weeks–months → markdown/return (first order only)",
   "confidence": "medium-high",
   "sources": "https://www.faire.com/how-faire-works | https://garnetmarketplace.com/marketplaces/ankorstore.html"
  },
  {
   "rank": 3,
   "id": "kitchen",
   "name": "Restaurant & commercial-kitchen equipment liquidations",
   "sector": "Equipment",
   "group": "t2",
   "overlap": "Adjacent: Office clearance lots; Industrial surplus equipment — distinct vertical",
   "structural_fit": 85.2,
   "gate_multiplier": 1.0,
   "perimeter": "",
   "perimeter_multiplier": 1.0,
   "actionable_score": 85.2,
   "access": 3,
   "scale": "BidSpotter snapshot Sep 2026: 1,853 restaurant/bar lots live; US restaurant closures 886–1,650/month (2025); 2026 chain closures ~1,000 locations.",
   "data": "Auctioneer archives (prices realised for registered users); BidSpotter/Proxibid past results; eBay sold; WebstaurantStore new-price comps.",
   "menu": "Lot (item × make/model × condition note × location × pickup window) × bid",
   "consumption": 1,
   "risk": "'Working when removed'; refrigerant/gas faults; removal deadlines; geographic clustering (WA/GA/FL/CA).",
   "experiment": "Used-equipment dealer's 12 months of bids (won/lost) + removal cost + resale; score lots; measure abstention on far-away/heavy lots.",
   "logistics": 3,
   "density": 2,
   "longtail": 3,
   "breadth": 3,
   "partial_obs": 3,
   "cadence": 2,
   "ops_dependence": 3,
   "gate_menu": "Y",
   "gate_outcome": "Y",
   "gate_constraints": "Y",
   "gate_feedback": "Y",
   "reject_reasons": "Capacity · Operational fit · Attention",
   "sales_tape": "Win → removal (disconnect, rigging) → test/clean → resale (eBay/local) over 2–8 weeks → scrap",
   "confidence": "medium",
   "sources": "https://www.bidspotter.com/en-us/for-sale/food-and-beverage-equipment/restaurant-and-bar-equipment | https://restaurantauctioncompany.com/faqs/ | https://datassential.com/resource/restaurant-closures-2025-trends-data/"
  },
  {
   "rank": 5,
   "id": "xborder",
   "name": "Cross-border marketplace arbitrage (MercadoLibre Global Selling, Allegro, noon)",
   "sector": "Commerce",
   "group": "core",
   "overlap": "Adjacent: Amazon wholesale / online arbitrage; Walmart and marketplace wholesale (domestic) — cross-border is new",
   "structural_fit": 88.9,
   "gate_multiplier": 1.0,
   "perimeter": "",
   "perimeter_multiplier": 0.95,
   "actionable_score": 84.5,
   "access": 2,
   "scale": "Whole catalogues per country; ML Full storage $0.0005–$0.024/unit/day; category counts unpublished.",
   "data": "Marketplace price/BSR history; Nubimetrics / Real Trends for ML (unverified); Keepa-class tools for source side.",
   "menu": "SKU (source listing × destination country × marketplace × qty) × landed cost × fees × duties",
   "consumption": 3,
   "risk": "Duties/VAT and returns are the hidden costs; FX; marketplace rule volatility; Russian platforms off-limits for a US entity.",
   "experiment": "Reuse the Amazon OA pipeline: snapshot ML/Allegro catalogues weekly for 3 months, ship 200 SKUs, replay landed margin; measure abstention vs duty surprises.",
   "logistics": 3,
   "density": 3,
   "longtail": 3,
   "breadth": 3,
   "partial_obs": 2,
   "cadence": 2,
   "ops_dependence": 3,
   "gate_menu": "Y",
   "gate_outcome": "Y",
   "gate_constraints": "Y",
   "gate_feedback": "Y",
   "reject_reasons": "Complexity · Attention · Time",
   "sales_tape": "Source purchase → inbound to ML Full / cross-border parcel → sale → returns/customs delays → biweekly payout",
   "confidence": "medium",
   "sources": "https://global-selling.mercadolibre.com/landing/pricing | https://helpcenter.noon.partners/en/category/onboarding-and-registration/documents-required-to-sell-on-noon | https://help.allegro.com/en/marketplaces"
  },
  {
   "rank": 5,
   "id": "phones",
   "name": "Used-smartphone wholesale lots (B-Stock carrier/insurer storefronts, Back Market supply)",
   "sector": "Electronics",
   "group": "t2",
   "overlap": "Specifies: Refurbished electronics — the auction-lot, best-instrumented version",
   "structural_fit": 88.9,
   "gate_multiplier": 1.0,
   "perimeter": "",
   "perimeter_multiplier": 0.95,
   "actionable_score": 84.5,
   "access": 2,
   "scale": "~1,000 mobile auctions closing per week on B-Stock; 5M+ phones/yr; Mobile Carrier ~500 lots/wk (grades AA+–RR); hundreds of model × storage × carrier SKUs.",
   "data": "B-Stock closed-auction history (login); Swappa sold prices; Aikon grade benchmarks (−12% to −90% vs A); CTIA functional 0–9 × cosmetic A–D grading.",
   "menu": "Lot (storefront × grade × model mix × qty × IMEI list) × bid — mutually exclusive lots per closing day",
   "consumption": 2,
   "risk": "Functional yield, locks, battery health only after receipt; weekly price decay; reseller-cert/R2 gate.",
   "experiment": "Refurbisher's 12 months of B-Stock bids (won and lost) + yield/resale ledger; score lots; measure predicted vs realised recovery by grade.",
   "logistics": 2,
   "density": 3,
   "longtail": 3,
   "breadth": 3,
   "partial_obs": 3,
   "cadence": 3,
   "ops_dependence": 3,
   "gate_menu": "Y",
   "gate_outcome": "Y",
   "gate_constraints": "Y",
   "gate_feedback": "Y",
   "reject_reasons": "Prediction · Complexity · Time",
   "sales_tape": "Win → receive → test/grade → activation-lock & yield → refurb → resale over 2–6 weeks → returns",
   "confidence": "high (B-Stock)",
   "sources": "https://bstock.com/blog/buyers-guide-mobile-storefronts-on-bstock/ | https://bstock.com/mobilecarrier/faq/ | https://sustainableelectronics.org/knowledge-base/ctia-grading-qa/"
  },
  {
   "rank": 7,
   "id": "produce",
   "name": "Fresh produce terminal-market wholesale (Hunts Point & regional terminals)",
   "sector": "Perishables",
   "group": "industrial",
   "overlap": "Adjacent: Agricultural surplus and off-grade lots; Short-dated food closeouts (both cover off-spec — this is primary spot wholesale)",
   "structural_fit": 96.3,
   "gate_multiplier": 0.9,
   "perimeter": "",
   "perimeter_multiplier": 0.95,
   "actionable_score": 82.3,
   "access": 2,
   "scale": "Hunts Point: ~47 merchants, $2–2.3B/yr, ~23,000 restaurant customers, ~9% of US produce; ~13 USDA-reported terminal markets; daily lot counts not published.",
   "data": "USDA AMS Market News terminal & shipping-point reports (daily, by commodity/origin/size) + MyMarketNews API (free key, bulk download) — best public feed in this list.",
   "menu": "Merchant offer (commodity × origin × size/grade × pack) × cases × day",
   "consumption": 3,
   "risk": "Declined offers must be captured by the agent (no electronic book); shrink attribution per lot; PACA prompt-pay trust; hours-scale cadence stresses fit latency.",
   "experiment": "Instrument one wholesaler's daily buys + passed offers for 30 days against USDA terminal prices; replay shrink-adjusted margin; test abstention on volatile commodities.",
   "logistics": 3,
   "density": 3,
   "longtail": 3,
   "breadth": 3,
   "partial_obs": 3,
   "cadence": 3,
   "ops_dependence": 3,
   "gate_menu": "Y",
   "gate_outcome": "Y",
   "gate_constraints": "Y",
   "gate_feedback": "P",
   "reject_reasons": "Attention · Time · Operational fit",
   "sales_tape": "Purchase → cold storage → restaurant/retail sale (hours–days) → rejections/credits → shrink write-off",
   "confidence": "medium",
   "sources": "https://www.ams.usda.gov/rules-regulations/paca/licensing | https://mymarketnews.ams.usda.gov/mymarketnews-api | https://www.nycfoodpolicy.org/hunts-point-distribution-center-brief-overview-spotlight-produce-market/"
  },
  {
   "rank": 8,
   "id": "consign",
   "name": "Consignment intake decisions (luxury & local resale shops)",
   "sector": "Commerce",
   "group": "t2",
   "overlap": "New — refusal-first market (accept/decline per item offered)",
   "structural_fit": 81.5,
   "gate_multiplier": 1.0,
   "perimeter": "",
   "perimeter_multiplier": 1.0,
   "actionable_score": 81.5,
   "access": 3,
   "scale": "TRR FY2025: consignment revenue $535.9M of $693M; 1.056M active buyers; take rate 36.5% (Q4'25).",
   "data": "Platform sold listings; Rebag Clair; no accept/decline datasets published — the shop's own intake log is the asset.",
   "menu": "Offered item (category × brand × condition × asking/quote × consignor) × accept / buyout / decline × price",
   "consumption": 1,
   "risk": "Shelf capacity is the binding constraint; regrade after receipt; low consumption.",
   "experiment": "Consignment shop: 24 months of intake decisions incl. declines + sales; shadow-score intake; measure inventory-turn gain.",
   "logistics": 1,
   "density": 3,
   "longtail": 3,
   "breadth": 3,
   "partial_obs": 3,
   "cadence": 2,
   "ops_dependence": 3,
   "gate_menu": "Y",
   "gate_outcome": "Y",
   "gate_constraints": "Y",
   "gate_feedback": "Y",
   "reject_reasons": "Attention · Prediction · Capacity",
   "sales_tape": "Intake → authentication/regrade → listing → sale → returns → consignor payout (day 15–21) → unsold return after ~90 days",
   "confidence": "medium-high",
   "sources": "https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2026/02/26/3246067/0/en/the-realreal-announces-fourth-quarter-and-full-year-2025-results.html | https://www.underpriced.app/blog/the-realreal-consignment-guide-2026 | https://www.thriftandtell.com/guides/fashionphileselling"
  },
  {
   "rank": 9,
   "id": "itad",
   "name": "Used networking & data-centre gear (ITAD lots)",
   "sector": "Electronics",
   "group": "t2",
   "overlap": "Specifies: Refurbished electronics / 'Surplus laptops and IT gear' (landing page)",
   "structural_fit": 85.2,
   "gate_multiplier": 1.0,
   "perimeter": "",
   "perimeter_multiplier": 0.95,
   "actionable_score": 80.9,
   "access": 3,
   "scale": "ITAD market $28.3B (2025) → $31.9B (2026); Liquidity Services 500+ categories; servers hold value 3–5 yrs from release.",
   "data": "Closed-auction prices on Liquidity Services marketplaces; dealer quotes; no public used-Cisco/Dell index.",
   "menu": "Lot (equipment class × model × qty × drive status × rails/licences) × bid",
   "consumption": 1,
   "risk": "Component yields, BMC/BIOS locks, missing transceivers; data-sanitisation obligations.",
   "experiment": "ITAD reseller's 12 months of lot bids (won/lost) + yield + resale; score lots by class/age.",
   "logistics": 2,
   "density": 3,
   "longtail": 3,
   "breadth": 3,
   "partial_obs": 3,
   "cadence": 2,
   "ops_dependence": 3,
   "gate_menu": "Y",
   "gate_outcome": "Y",
   "gate_constraints": "Y",
   "gate_feedback": "Y",
   "reject_reasons": "Complexity · Attention · Capacity",
   "sales_tape": "Win → sanitisation (NIST 800-88) → component test → resale (weeks) → yield write-offs",
   "confidence": "medium",
   "sources": "https://www.grandviewresearch.com/industry-analysis/it-asset-disposition-market | https://liquidtechnology.net/how-much-is-used-it-equipment-worth/ | https://www.sktes.com/news/what-is-r2v3"
  },
  {
   "rank": 10,
   "id": "paperstock",
   "name": "Printing paper stocklots & side-runs (Go2Paper, PaperIndex)",
   "sector": "Industrial remnants",
   "group": "industrial",
   "overlap": "New — distinct from recovered-material bales (this is unused stock)",
   "structural_fit": 88.9,
   "gate_multiplier": 0.9,
   "perimeter": "",
   "perimeter_multiplier": 1.0,
   "actionable_score": 80.0,
   "access": 3,
   "scale": "No listing/volume counts published; lot structure (basis weight × brightness × width × core) unverified on the help pages.",
   "data": "No public benchmark; Fastmarkets RISI (paid) as reference; price discovery by RFP.",
   "menu": "Lot (grade × basis weight × brightness × width × core × location) × tons × price → matched to a printer's job",
   "consumption": 3,
   "risk": "Spec matching is the business; freight on jumbo rolls; counterparty and quality risk off-platform; slow RFQ cycles on PaperIndex.",
   "experiment": "Paper merchant's 12 months of stocklot offers (taken/passed) with conversion cost and sale price.",
   "logistics": 3,
   "density": 2,
   "longtail": 3,
   "breadth": 3,
   "partial_obs": 2,
   "cadence": 2,
   "ops_dependence": 3,
   "gate_menu": "Y",
   "gate_outcome": "Y",
   "gate_constraints": "Y",
   "gate_feedback": "P",
   "reject_reasons": "Scale · Complexity · Attention",
   "sales_tape": "Buy → jumbo-roll freight → slit/convert → sale to printer → off-spec claims",
   "confidence": "medium (fees) / low (lots, prices)",
   "sources": "https://www.go2paper.com/help/help.asp | https://www.paperindex.com/faq"
  },
  {
   "rank": 11,
   "id": "privatelabel",
   "name": "Private-label product launches (Alibaba → Amazon/marketplace) — venture-class bets",
   "sector": "Commerce — venture",
   "group": "core",
   "overlap": "Adjacent: Amazon wholesale / OA — launch selection (no supplier approval) is a different decision",
   "structural_fit": 92.6,
   "gate_multiplier": 0.9,
   "perimeter": "",
   "perimeter_multiplier": 0.95,
   "actionable_score": 79.2,
   "access": 3,
   "scale": "Unbounded niche menu (Helium 10 / Jungle Scout); Jungle Scout 2025 survey: 40% cite rising costs, 30% fewer sourcing from China; de minimis ended May/Aug 2025.",
   "data": "Helium 10 / Jungle Scout demand estimates; Keepa; Brand Analytics (sellers only); no public per-launch outcome dataset — '90% fail' claims unsourced.",
   "menu": "Launch (niche × supplier quote × MOQ × unit cost × freight × tariff × ad budget) × order qty — each row is a small startup",
   "consumption": 3,
   "risk": "Data floor: $4–12k per observed launch → ≥100 observed launches ≈ $0.5–1M of history for one operator; 3–6 month cycles; tariff drift; platform suspension risk.",
   "experiment": "Pool anonymised launch ledgers from several aggregators/agencies (enterprise); test if P34 abstains on launches that later died; membership version = only for operators with 100+ past launches.",
   "logistics": 3,
   "density": 3,
   "longtail": 3,
   "breadth": 3,
   "partial_obs": 3,
   "cadence": 1,
   "ops_dependence": 3,
   "gate_menu": "Y",
   "gate_outcome": "Y",
   "gate_constraints": "Y",
   "gate_feedback": "P",
   "reject_reasons": "Prediction · Complexity · Capacity",
   "sales_tape": "PO → inspection → freight → FBA → sales/PPC → reviews → returns → reorder or liquidation",
   "confidence": "medium (costs/tariffs high; failure rates low)",
   "sources": "https://sell.amazon.com/blog/brand-registry-requirements | https://www.unicargo.com/de-minimis-ended-2026-tariffs-guide-amazon-fba/ | https://www.junglescout.com/resources/reports/amazon-seller-report-2025/"
  },
  {
   "rank": 12,
   "id": "fish",
   "name": "Electronic fish auctions (Pefa clock network; Portland Fish Exchange)",
   "sector": "Perishables",
   "group": "industrial",
   "overlap": "New",
   "structural_fit": 81.5,
   "gate_multiplier": 1.0,
   "perimeter": "",
   "perimeter_multiplier": 0.95,
   "actionable_score": 77.4,
   "access": 2,
   "scale": "Dutch first sale 2025: 26,682 t / €145M across 12 auctions (7 on Pefa); dozens of species × size × grade per port; lots/day not published.",
   "data": "Pefa Data (paid); EUMOFA first-sale prices (free weekly/monthly); PFEX daily/weekly price reports; live clock.",
   "menu": "Lot (species × size × grade × port × vessel) × boxes × clock price",
   "consumption": 3,
   "risk": "Per-auction bank guarantees; lot counts unverified; yield/shrink only after processing; same-day cadence.",
   "experiment": "Subscribe to one Pefa clock; record every lot and pass for 6 weeks; shadow-score against a fishmonger's realised resale; measure abstention value on gluts.",
   "logistics": 3,
   "density": 2,
   "longtail": 2,
   "breadth": 2,
   "partial_obs": 2,
   "cadence": 3,
   "ops_dependence": 3,
   "gate_menu": "Y",
   "gate_outcome": "Y",
   "gate_constraints": "Y",
   "gate_feedback": "Y",
   "reject_reasons": "Time · Operational fit · Capacity",
   "sales_tape": "Clock buy → same-day cold-chain → processor/retail sale → yield loss/shrink → claims",
   "confidence": "medium",
   "sources": "https://www.pefa.com/how-to-buy-fish-with-the-pefa-auction-network/ | https://fishery-aquaculture-market-observatory.ec.europa.eu/en/country-and-species-profiles/country-profiles/netherlands | https://www.pfex.org/auction/"
  },
  {
   "rank": 13,
   "id": "ecomponents",
   "name": "Excess & obsolete electronic components brokerage (independent distribution)",
   "sector": "Electronics",
   "group": "industrial",
   "overlap": "Adjacent: Spare-parts stocking; Industrial surplus equipment — MPN brokerage is distinct",
   "structural_fit": 85.2,
   "gate_multiplier": 0.9,
   "perimeter": "",
   "perimeter_multiplier": 1.0,
   "actionable_score": 76.7,
   "access": 3,
   "scale": "1B+ MPNs; 621,909 components EOL'd in 2025 (52% without PCN); 2026 shortage: DRAM contract +90–95% QoQ Q1 2026, FPGA lead times 40 wks, MCU up to 55 wks.",
   "data": "Nexar / Sourcengine APIs (price, stock); Z2Data / SiliconExpert lifecycle (paid); ERAI reports; TrendForce; Baird lead-time monitor.",
   "menu": "Line (MPN × date code × qty × source × price × test level) × buy/pass against RFQ demand",
   "consumption": 3,
   "risk": "Counterfeit/nonconforming risk (ERAI 748 reports 2025; 24% pass electrical-only tests); shortage cycles are multi-quarter regimes; spreads unpublished.",
   "experiment": "Broker's 24 months of RFQs, quotes, buys and sales; join test results; score buy/pass per line under shortage/normal regimes with lifecycle features.",
   "logistics": 1,
   "density": 3,
   "longtail": 3,
   "breadth": 3,
   "partial_obs": 3,
   "cadence": 2,
   "ops_dependence": 2,
   "gate_menu": "Y",
   "gate_outcome": "Y",
   "gate_constraints": "Y",
   "gate_feedback": "P",
   "reject_reasons": "Attention · Prediction · Complexity",
   "sales_tape": "Buy → AS6081 test (days) → sale to OEM/EMS → returns/nonconformance → write-off of unsold reels",
   "confidence": "medium-high",
   "sources": "https://www.sourcengine.com/api-integrations | https://nexar.com/api | https://www.dasenic.com/blog/knowledgeHub/obsolete-components-in-2026-eol-list-shortage-statistics-what-to-do-about-it | https://www.oxebridge.com/emma/erai-report-counterfeit-electronics-on-the-decline-despite-increase-in-sales/"
  },
  {
   "rank": 13,
   "id": "labeq",
   "name": "Used lab & scientific equipment (LabX, BioSurplus, EquipNet, Heritage Global)",
   "sector": "Equipment",
   "group": "t2",
   "overlap": "Adjacent: Industrial surplus equipment",
   "structural_fit": 85.2,
   "gate_multiplier": 0.9,
   "perimeter": "",
   "perimeter_multiplier": 1.0,
   "actionable_score": 76.7,
   "access": 3,
   "scale": "Listing counts not published; HGP ~20+ biotech auctions Jan–Jul 2026; university surplus via Public Surplus/GovDeals.",
   "data": "No public sold-price index; Bidspotter results after login; LabX asking prices.",
   "menu": "Lot (instrument × model × calibration/service status × removal window) × bid",
   "consumption": 1,
   "risk": "Scale unverified; software licences and calibration unknown until powered; export controls on some analytical gear.",
   "experiment": "Lab-equipment dealer's auction bids (won/lost) + test outcomes + resale for 12 months; score by instrument class.",
   "logistics": 3,
   "density": 2,
   "longtail": 3,
   "breadth": 3,
   "partial_obs": 3,
   "cadence": 2,
   "ops_dependence": 3,
   "gate_menu": "Y",
   "gate_outcome": "Y",
   "gate_constraints": "Y",
   "gate_feedback": "P",
   "reject_reasons": "Complexity · Attention · Capacity",
   "sales_tape": "Win → rigging/decon → test → resale (weeks) → OEM licence transfer issues",
   "confidence": "low-medium",
   "sources": "https://www.hgpauction.com/biotech-pharmaceutical-auctions/ | https://www.labx.com/ | https://www.excedr.com/blog/laboratory-equipment-auctions"
  },
  {
   "rank": 13,
   "id": "salvage",
   "name": "Insurance-salvage merchandise lots (Salvex, Fr8Auctions, insurer programs)",
   "sector": "Liquidation",
   "group": "t2",
   "overlap": "Adjacent: Liquidation and B-stock pallets; Returned-goods resale — insurer supply is distinct",
   "structural_fit": 85.2,
   "gate_multiplier": 0.9,
   "perimeter": "",
   "perimeter_multiplier": 1.0,
   "actionable_score": 76.7,
   "access": 2,
   "scale": "Salvex ~5k live lots (heavily industrial/aviation); Liquidity Services FY2025 GMV $1.57B, 6.0M registered buyers; Fr8 weekly.",
   "data": "Per-listing bid counts on Salvex; closed prices for registered Liquidity Services users; no index.",
   "menu": "Lot (category × damage type × manifest completeness × location × branding restriction) × bid",
   "consumption": 2,
   "risk": "Damage extent hidden; control-of-damaged-goods clauses (brands destroy instead of salvage); Fr8 gate.",
   "experiment": "Salvage buyer's 12 months of bids (won/lost, bid counts) + recovery ledger; score lots by damage type.",
   "logistics": 3,
   "density": 2,
   "longtail": 3,
   "breadth": 3,
   "partial_obs": 3,
   "cadence": 2,
   "ops_dependence": 3,
   "gate_menu": "Y",
   "gate_outcome": "Y",
   "gate_constraints": "Y",
   "gate_feedback": "P",
   "reject_reasons": "Complexity · Attention · Capacity",
   "sales_tape": "Win → freight → inspection/sort → resale by channel → destruction of de-labelled goods",
   "confidence": "medium",
   "sources": "https://www.salvex.com/ | https://fr8auctions.com/registration/ | https://liquidityservices.com/press-releases/liquidity-services-announces-fourth-quarter-fiscal-year-2025-0 | https://www.munichre.com/en/insights/mobility-and-transport/high-price-brand-protection.html"
  },
  {
   "rank": 13,
   "id": "millends",
   "name": "Mill-end textiles & flexible-packaging film remnants (B2B)",
   "sector": "Industrial remnants",
   "group": "industrial",
   "overlap": "Adjacent: Deadstock and branded apparel lots; Industrial by-products — remnant rolls into small jobs is new",
   "structural_fit": 85.2,
   "gate_multiplier": 0.9,
   "perimeter": "",
   "perimeter_multiplier": 1.0,
   "actionable_score": 76.7,
   "access": 3,
   "scale": "No published volumes; jobber deadstock $5–15/yd at 50–70% below mill price (Style3D, marketing source).",
   "data": "No index or API; quote-driven.",
   "menu": "Roll (spec × width × length × location × age) × qty × price → matched to a small job",
   "consumption": 3,
   "risk": "Thin comps; freight can exceed remnant value; actual yardage, flaws and (for film) treatment decay hidden until receipt; film-remnant side unverified.",
   "experiment": "Jobber's 12 months of lots offered/taken and sell-through by spec; test spec-match features vs realised margin.",
   "logistics": 2,
   "density": 2,
   "longtail": 3,
   "breadth": 3,
   "partial_obs": 2,
   "cadence": 2,
   "ops_dependence": 3,
   "gate_menu": "Y",
   "gate_outcome": "Y",
   "gate_constraints": "Y",
   "gate_feedback": "P",
   "reject_reasons": "Scale · Complexity · Operational fit",
   "sales_tape": "Buy → LTL → cut/convert or resell → yardage shortfall, defects, dye-lot disputes",
   "confidence": "low",
   "sources": "https://www.style3d.ai/blog/what-are-fabric-jobbers-and-how-do-they-benefit-fashion-designers/"
  },
  {
   "rank": 17,
   "id": "nursery",
   "name": "Nursery stock & live-plant wholesale (landscape trade)",
   "sector": "Perishables",
   "group": "t2",
   "overlap": "Adjacent: Rare plants and seeds (collectibles) — this is trade wholesale",
   "structural_fit": 88.9,
   "gate_multiplier": 0.9,
   "perimeter": "",
   "perimeter_multiplier": 0.95,
   "actionable_score": 76.0,
   "access": 2,
   "scale": "USDA 2019 census: $13.8B, 20,655 operations; nursery stock $4.55B; PlantANT claims 613,182 listings / 36,871 varieties; CA+FL+OR = 66% of sales.",
   "data": "Grower availability lists (weekly PDF/Excel); LandscapeHub member pricing; ANSI Z60.1 grading; no public price index.",
   "menu": "Plant (species × cultivar × size × container × grower) × quantity × landed price",
   "consumption": 3,
   "risk": "Seasonality and weather; mortality attribution; phytosanitary quarantines; no central price archive.",
   "experiment": "Aggregate 20 growers' availability lists weekly for a season; join a landscaper's job pipeline and yard shrink; score buy-vs-pass per line.",
   "logistics": 3,
   "density": 2,
   "longtail": 3,
   "breadth": 3,
   "partial_obs": 3,
   "cadence": 2,
   "ops_dependence": 3,
   "gate_menu": "Y",
   "gate_outcome": "Y",
   "gate_constraints": "Y",
   "gate_feedback": "P",
   "reject_reasons": "Attention · Complexity · Operational fit",
   "sales_tape": "Purchase → freight → hold in yard → job installation or retail sale → mortality/shrink write-off",
   "confidence": "medium",
   "sources": "https://www.nass.usda.gov/Newsroom/archive/2020/12-08-2020.php | https://blog.landscapehub.com/how-to-source-nursery-products-wholesale-without-the-hassle | https://www.plantant.com/"
  },
  {
   "rank": 18,
   "id": "biomass",
   "name": "Biomass wood-chip / pellet spot (BALTPOOL-class auctions)",
   "sector": "Energy feedstock",
   "group": "industrial",
   "overlap": "New",
   "structural_fit": 77.8,
   "gate_multiplier": 1.0,
   "perimeter": "",
   "perimeter_multiplier": 0.95,
   "actionable_score": 73.9,
   "access": 2,
   "scale": "2020–21 season: 4M MWh traded, 453 registered participants (117 international) — dated; 2025 volumes unverified. Avg supply prices then LT €10.89/MWh, LV €12.15, EE €12.90.",
   "data": "BALTPOOL public market data and monthly statistics; Argus Biomass Markets (paid); US pellet/chip indexes paid (ResourceWise, FutureMetrics).",
   "menu": "Lot (quality class × origin × delivery week × distance) × MWh × €/MWh bid",
   "consumption": 3,
   "risk": "Moisture and haul dominate value; EU sustainability certification (RED III/SBP); auction results public incl. unmatched bids — good declined-option record.",
   "experiment": "Replay BALTPOOL auction history for a supplier: bids won/lost vs delivered-energy settlement; test abstention on long-haul lots.",
   "logistics": 3,
   "density": 2,
   "longtail": 2,
   "breadth": 2,
   "partial_obs": 2,
   "cadence": 2,
   "ops_dependence": 3,
   "gate_menu": "Y",
   "gate_outcome": "Y",
   "gate_constraints": "Y",
   "gate_feedback": "Y",
   "reject_reasons": "Operational fit · Scale · Time",
   "sales_tape": "Award → delivery → moisture/ash measurement → settlement on delivered energy → penalties",
   "confidence": "medium (2021-vintage scale)",
   "sources": "https://www.svebio.se/en/press/pressmeddelanden/increased-volumes-traded-international-biomass-exchange/ | https://www.baltpool.eu/en/biomass-exchange/how-to-trade/"
  },
  {
   "rank": 19,
   "id": "carhaul",
   "name": "Vehicle-transport load boards (Central Dispatch class)",
   "sector": "Logistics",
   "group": "capacity",
   "overlap": "Adjacent: Truckload boards; Backhaul matching (this is per-vehicle, multi-car routing)",
   "structural_fit": 85.2,
   "gate_multiplier": 0.9,
   "perimeter": "",
   "perimeter_multiplier": 0.95,
   "actionable_score": 72.8,
   "access": 2,
   "scale": "Central Dispatch: 10,000,000+ vehicles posted/yr (~27k/day), 20,000+ carriers; cancellations +24.8% H1-26, 4.64% of orders cancelled for inadequate rate.",
   "data": "In-app daily market price tool; CCJ rate surveys ($2.04/mi short haul ≈ $623/vehicle; $0.55/mi cross-country ≈ $1,534); no open API.",
   "menu": "Load (vehicle × origin/destination × pickup window × open/enclosed × rate) × accept/decline given truck position and open slots",
   "consumption": 1,
   "risk": "Rolling menu with interference (paper: rapidly expiring menus); declined loads must be logged by the dispatcher agent; damage-claim rates not published.",
   "experiment": "Carrier with 3–9 car trailers: 6 months of board snapshots + accepted/declined loads + realised margin per trip; score load sets under routing constraints.",
   "logistics": 3,
   "density": 3,
   "longtail": 3,
   "breadth": 3,
   "partial_obs": 2,
   "cadence": 3,
   "ops_dependence": 3,
   "gate_menu": "Y",
   "gate_outcome": "Y",
   "gate_constraints": "Y",
   "gate_feedback": "P",
   "reject_reasons": "Operational fit · Time · Capacity",
   "sales_tape": "Accept → pickup → delivery (BOL inspection) → damage claims → payment (net terms/quick-pay)",
   "confidence": "medium",
   "sources": "https://www.centraldispatch.com/ | https://www.ccjdigital.com/economic-trends/freight-demand/article/15834395/how-much-does-it-cost-to-ship-a-car-in-2026-rates-trends | https://superdispatch.com/blog/carrier-insurance/"
  },
  {
   "rank": 19,
   "id": "barge",
   "name": "Inland barge spot capacity (shipper-side quoting)",
   "sector": "Logistics capacity",
   "group": "capacity",
   "overlap": "New — distinct from Ocean freight capacity and Container repositioning",
   "structural_fit": 85.2,
   "gate_multiplier": 0.9,
   "perimeter": "",
   "perimeter_multiplier": 0.95,
   "actionable_score": 72.8,
   "access": 2,
   "scale": "Rates quoted as % of the 1976 benchmark tariff × $/ton (St. Louis $3.99, Twin Cities $6.19, Cairo–Memphis $3.14); USDA GTR publishes weekly grain-barge tons and rates.",
   "data": "USDA AMS Grain Transportation Report (weekly); agtransport.usda.gov Barge Dashboard + 3-month forward rate datasets (Socrata downloads); OpenTug rate guide.",
   "menu": "Quote (lane × commodity × tons × sailing week × draft/tow constraints) × accept / decline",
   "consumption": 3,
   "risk": "Draft restrictions, lock outages and low-water spikes (Oct 2022) are regime shocks; fleeting/demurrage hidden; declined quotes must be self-logged.",
   "experiment": "Grain shipper/broker's 12 months of quotes accepted/declined vs USDA weekly rates and realised transit cost.",
   "logistics": 3,
   "density": 2,
   "longtail": 3,
   "breadth": 2,
   "partial_obs": 2,
   "cadence": 3,
   "ops_dependence": 3,
   "gate_menu": "Y",
   "gate_outcome": "Y",
   "gate_constraints": "Y",
   "gate_feedback": "P",
   "reject_reasons": "Operational fit · Time · Capacity",
   "sales_tape": "Booking → loading → transit (locks, river stage) → delivery → demurrage/cleaning → payment",
   "confidence": "medium-high (benchmarks)",
   "sources": "https://opentug.com/blog/comprehensive-guide-to-barge-rates | https://agtransport.usda.gov/stories/s/Barge-Dashboard/965a-yzgy/ | https://www.ams.usda.gov/sites/default/files/media/GTR08062026.pdf"
  },
  {
   "rank": 21,
   "id": "tiktokshop",
   "name": "TikTok Shop / dropship product tests — venture-class, days cadence",
   "sector": "Commerce — venture",
   "group": "core",
   "overlap": "New (Marketplace sponsored listings is the ad side; this is product-test selection)",
   "structural_fit": 92.6,
   "gate_multiplier": 0.81,
   "perimeter": "",
   "perimeter_multiplier": 0.95,
   "actionable_score": 71.3,
   "access": 3,
   "scale": "US: ~475k–800k shops (sources conflict), ~216k with sales; US GMV 2025 ~$15B (Canopy); global $64–66B; ~2,000 US shops >$1M.",
   "data": "Seller Center analytics (own); Kalodata / FastMoss cross-shop estimates; no public return/CAC archive.",
   "menu": "Product test (SKU × supplier × price × creative × affiliate commission × ad budget) × launch/skip — thousands of candidate products per week",
   "consumption": 3,
   "risk": "Platform-rule volatility (referral fee 6%→8% Aug 2026; gated categories); attribution of affiliate/ad demand; constraints change under you (gate 'Constraints' = Partial).",
   "experiment": "Operator with 300+ past product tests: replay launch/skip decisions with ad spend and return tape; test 7-day kill/scale policy vs P34 abstention; keep fees as dated features.",
   "logistics": 2,
   "density": 3,
   "longtail": 3,
   "breadth": 3,
   "partial_obs": 3,
   "cadence": 3,
   "ops_dependence": 2,
   "gate_menu": "Y",
   "gate_outcome": "Y",
   "gate_constraints": "P",
   "gate_feedback": "P",
   "reject_reasons": "Time · Prediction · Attention",
   "sales_tape": "Launch → ad/affiliate spend → orders → delivery → returns/refunds → payout; kill or scale within days",
   "confidence": "medium",
   "sources": "https://canopymanagement.com/tiktok-shop-eligibility-what-you-need-to-get-started/ | https://delzonic.com/blogs/tiktok-shop-fee-increase-2026/ | https://redstagfulfillment.com/how-many-tiktok-shop-sellers/"
  },
  {
   "rank": 22,
   "id": "timber",
   "name": "Standing timber & log sales (state/federal auctions, private stumpage, log yards)",
   "sector": "Industrial / agri",
   "group": "industrial",
   "overlap": "New",
   "structural_fit": 74.1,
   "gate_multiplier": 1.0,
   "perimeter": "",
   "perimeter_multiplier": 0.95,
   "actionable_score": 70.4,
   "access": 2,
   "scale": "USFS FY2025 sold 2.94 BBF (goal 4 BBF by FY28); WA DNR monthly auctions with results published since 1969; sample GNA sales 2,442–11,547 MBF, 2 of 4 with no bids.",
   "data": "WA DNR / ODF full bid archives incl. no-bid sales; USFS cut-and-sold reports; TimberMart-South (quarterly, subscription); state extension price reports.",
   "menu": "Sale (tract × species mix × cruised volume × haul distance × contract term) × bid $/MBF or $/ton",
   "consumption": 2,
   "risk": "Feedback arrives over months–years (paper boundary: too slow vs regime); $1M+ tickets on public sales; operator fit (crews, mills) dominates; cruise vs scale error is the market.",
   "experiment": "Backtest 10 years of DNR/ODF results incl. no-bid sales against delivered-log price series; test whether P34 abstains on single-bidder tracts that later lost money.",
   "logistics": 3,
   "density": 1,
   "longtail": 3,
   "breadth": 2,
   "partial_obs": 3,
   "cadence": 1,
   "ops_dependence": 3,
   "gate_menu": "Y",
   "gate_outcome": "Y",
   "gate_constraints": "Y",
   "gate_feedback": "Y",
   "reject_reasons": "Capacity · Operational fit · Complexity",
   "sales_tape": "Award → logging → scaling at mill → delivered-log payments over months → defect/grade recovery variance",
   "confidence": "medium-high",
   "sources": "https://www.dnr.wa.gov/programs-and-services/product-sales-and-leasing/timber-sales/timber-auction-results | https://www.oregon.gov/odf/working/pages/timbersales.aspx | https://www.fs.usda.gov/about-agency/accomplishments | https://timbermart-south.com/"
  },
  {
   "rank": 22,
   "id": "recruit",
   "name": "Contingency recruiting job-order selection (split-fee networks)",
   "sector": "Services",
   "group": "contracts",
   "overlap": "Adjacent: Freelance-platform work arbitrage; Lead purchasing; B2B outbound prospecting",
   "structural_fit": 74.1,
   "gate_multiplier": 1.0,
   "perimeter": "",
   "perimeter_multiplier": 0.95,
   "actionable_score": 70.4,
   "access": 2,
   "scale": "Open job orders per network unpublished; fees 15–25% of first-year base; time-to-fill ~36 days; Paraform avg placed comp $260k.",
   "data": "No public archive; BountyJobs exposes employer responsiveness/payment metrics; the agency's own ATS holds worked vs passed reqs.",
   "menu": "Job order (role × employer × fee % × exclusivity × location × responsiveness) × work / pass × sourcing hours",
   "consumption": 2,
   "risk": "Fall-off and non-payment 60–90+ days later; capacity (recruiter hours) is the constraint; no logistics.",
   "experiment": "Agency's 3 years of ATS job orders (worked/passed) + placements/fall-offs; shadow-score req selection.",
   "logistics": 0,
   "density": 2,
   "longtail": 3,
   "breadth": 3,
   "partial_obs": 3,
   "cadence": 2,
   "ops_dependence": 3,
   "gate_menu": "Y",
   "gate_outcome": "Y",
   "gate_constraints": "Y",
   "gate_feedback": "Y",
   "reject_reasons": "Attention · Prediction · Capacity",
   "sales_tape": "Submit → interview → placement → 60–90 day guarantee → fall-off / non-payment → fee received",
   "confidence": "medium",
   "sources": "https://bountyjobs.com/recruiter-faq | https://topechelon.com/product/te-network/ | https://www.paraform.com/blog/contingency-recruiting-guide"
  },
  {
   "rank": 24,
   "id": "hay",
   "name": "Hay, forage & feed lots",
   "sector": "Perishables / agri",
   "group": "industrial",
   "overlap": "Adjacent: Small livestock and equipment auctions",
   "structural_fit": 77.8,
   "gate_multiplier": 0.9,
   "perimeter": "",
   "perimeter_multiplier": 1.0,
   "actionable_score": 70.0,
   "access": 3,
   "scale": "USDA AMS state reports (CA 9/25/2026: 25,550 t + 44,544 bales confirmed); HayWire index 83 quotes/19 markets weekly; national $166/t (wk of 21 Sep 2026).",
   "data": "USDA AMS Market News (free; MyMarketNews API); HayWire index; extension surveys. Prices: Alfalfa Premium $300–310/t, Fair $109–165/t; TX $345 vs MN $111.",
   "menu": "Lot (type × quality grade × bale format × location × test status) × tons × delivered price",
   "consumption": 3,
   "risk": "Few asset types (breadth low); freight 30–50% of delivered price dominates; quality tests 'honor system'; regional spreads are the edge.",
   "experiment": "Take 12 months of AMS + auction data; join a hay dealer's buys, freight and sales; test whether regional spread minus freight predicts realised margin and when to pass.",
   "logistics": 3,
   "density": 2,
   "longtail": 2,
   "breadth": 1,
   "partial_obs": 2,
   "cadence": 2,
   "ops_dependence": 3,
   "gate_menu": "Y",
   "gate_outcome": "Y",
   "gate_constraints": "Y",
   "gate_feedback": "P",
   "reject_reasons": "Operational fit · Scale · Time",
   "sales_tape": "Buy → truck → store → resale or feed-out over weeks → moisture/mold rejection",
   "confidence": "high (data) / medium (marketplace scale)",
   "sources": "https://www.ams.usda.gov/mnreports/ams_2904.pdf | https://haywireag.com/prices.html | https://www.rockvalleyhay.com/web/faqs/"
  },
  {
   "rank": 24,
   "id": "pallets",
   "name": "Recycled pallet, IBC tote & drum trading",
   "sector": "Packaging / logistics",
   "group": "t4",
   "overlap": "New",
   "structural_fit": 77.8,
   "gate_multiplier": 0.9,
   "perimeter": "",
   "perimeter_multiplier": 1.0,
   "actionable_score": 70.0,
   "access": 3,
   "scale": "48forty: 240+ facilities, 850+ partners; Q1-2026 report: 396 verified supplier listings in 50 states; core buy avg $2.75 (range $1.60–12.84), Grade A sell avg $9.04, regional spread 85%.",
   "data": "Repackify pricing guides; usedpalletrecycling quarterly report; Pallet Enterprise surveys (paywalled). IBC avg $61 (range $11–144).",
   "menu": "Load (core source × grade mix × location) × pallets × $/pallet; IBC lot × condition × prior contents",
   "consumption": 2,
   "risk": "Few SKUs (breadth low); freight decides everything; grade drift at the dock; hazmat residue on totes.",
   "experiment": "One recycler's 12 months of core buys, sort yields, repair labour and sales by lane; score buy/pass per source and lane; test regional spread capture.",
   "logistics": 3,
   "density": 3,
   "longtail": 2,
   "breadth": 1,
   "partial_obs": 2,
   "cadence": 2,
   "ops_dependence": 3,
   "gate_menu": "Y",
   "gate_outcome": "Y",
   "gate_constraints": "Y",
   "gate_feedback": "P",
   "reject_reasons": "Scale · Operational fit · Capacity",
   "sales_tape": "Buy cores → sort/repair → truckload sale → dock re-grade / rejection",
   "confidence": "medium-high",
   "sources": "https://www.repackify.com/blog/what-is-a-gma-pallet-48x40-standard-grades-pricing | https://usedpalletrecycling.com/blog/2026-used-pallet-pricing-report | https://www.48forty.com/company-48forty"
  },
  {
   "rank": 24,
   "id": "toys",
   "name": "Retired toy lines & mass collectibles (Funko, Hot Wheels STH, Pop Mart/Labubu, Jellycat)",
   "sector": "Collectibles",
   "group": "t1",
   "overlap": "Adjacent: Retired LEGO sets; Sealed TCG; Sneakers (Tier 1 family)",
   "structural_fit": 77.8,
   "gate_multiplier": 0.9,
   "perimeter": "",
   "perimeter_multiplier": 1.0,
   "actionable_score": 70.0,
   "access": 3,
   "scale": "Funko ~800 licensed properties; Hot Wheels 30 Super Treasure Hunts/yr (resale $19–350); Pop Mart #1 collectibles brand on StockX since Oct 2024, cooling in 2026 (latest drop −14.3%).",
   "data": "hobbyDB Pop Price Guide; PriceCharting (Funko); StockX per-SKU sales history; eBay sold.",
   "menu": "Item (line × SKU × exclusive/chase flag × box condition) × qty × buy price × channel",
   "consumption": 1,
   "risk": "Fad-driven regimes (Labubu 2026 cooling); counterfeits (11,000+ seized Seattle 2025); low consumption → capital competition.",
   "experiment": "Reseller's ledger of drops bought/passed + StockX/eBay realised; test P34 on the 2025→26 Labubu regime shift.",
   "logistics": 1,
   "density": 3,
   "longtail": 3,
   "breadth": 3,
   "partial_obs": 2,
   "cadence": 3,
   "ops_dependence": 2,
   "gate_menu": "Y",
   "gate_outcome": "Y",
   "gate_constraints": "Y",
   "gate_feedback": "P",
   "reject_reasons": "Prediction · Time · Attention",
   "sales_tape": "Buy → hold → sale on StockX/eBay (days–months) → fees 10–15% → fad reversal write-down",
   "confidence": "medium",
   "sources": "https://stockx.com/about/stockxs-midyear-trend-report-has-asics-and-salomon-among-fastest-growing-sneaker-brands-sees-new-records-for-labubu-and-triple-digit-sales-growth-for-trading-cards/ | https://www.autoevolution.com/news/hot-wheels-super-treasure-hunt-prices-2025-vs-2024-253713.html | https://www.iam-media.com/article/pop-mart-intensifies-anti-counterfeiting-efforts-labubu-products-fakes-the-rise-and-prices-decline"
  },
  {
   "rank": 24,
   "id": "handbags",
   "name": "Luxury handbag & accessories resale (Fashionphile, Rebag, TRR, eBay AG)",
   "sector": "Collectibles / fashion",
   "group": "t2",
   "overlap": "Adjacent: Entry-tier watches and microbrands (authentication-risk family)",
   "structural_fit": 77.8,
   "gate_multiplier": 0.9,
   "perimeter": "",
   "perimeter_multiplier": 1.0,
   "actionable_score": 70.0,
   "access": 3,
   "scale": "TRR FY2025 GMV $2.13B, 3.59M orders, AOV $594; Rebag Clair 2025: Hermès 138%, Goyard 132% value retention; item-level Kelly Mini II 282%.",
   "data": "Rebag Clair annual index; Fashionphile/TRR sold listings; eBay sold comps; no days-to-sell published.",
   "menu": "Item (brand × model × size × colour × year × condition) × buy price × channel",
   "consumption": 1,
   "risk": "Authentication/regrade after receipt; take rates 36.5% (TRR); fashion regime shifts.",
   "experiment": "Reseller's quote history (Fashionphile quotes accepted/declined) + realised sales for 12 months.",
   "logistics": 1,
   "density": 3,
   "longtail": 3,
   "breadth": 3,
   "partial_obs": 3,
   "cadence": 2,
   "ops_dependence": 2,
   "gate_menu": "Y",
   "gate_outcome": "Y",
   "gate_constraints": "Y",
   "gate_feedback": "P",
   "reject_reasons": "Prediction · Attention",
   "sales_tape": "Buy → authentication → listing → sale (weeks) → 15-day returns → take rate realised at sale",
   "confidence": "medium-high",
   "sources": "https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/rebag-releases-its-sixth-annual-clair-report-a-comprehensive-luxury-appraisal-index-for-resale-302637452.html | https://pages.ebay.com/authenticity-guarantee-handbags-seller | https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2026/02/26/3246067/0/en/the-realreal-announces-fourth-quarter-and-full-year-2025-results.html"
  },
  {
   "rank": 28,
   "id": "coffee",
   "name": "Specialty green-coffee spot lots (importer spot lists, Cup of Excellence)",
   "sector": "Perishables / consumables",
   "group": "industrial",
   "overlap": "New",
   "structural_fit": 81.5,
   "gate_multiplier": 0.9,
   "perimeter": "",
   "perimeter_multiplier": 0.95,
   "actionable_score": 69.7,
   "access": 3,
   "scale": "Hundreds of live spot lots per importer (spot/afloat/future); CoE ~10 auctions/yr × 30 lots; Nicaragua 2025: ~2,800 bids from 100+ companies.",
   "data": "Importer offer sheets with Q-grader cupping scores; CoE public results archive (1999→: score, rank, price/lb, buyer); ICE 'C' futures as basis.",
   "menu": "Lot (origin × farm × process × grade × cup score × warehouse) × bags × price/lb",
   "consumption": 3,
   "risk": "Declined lots only recorded if offer sheets are snapshotted; value is operator-mediated (roasting + sales channel); seasonality of arrivals.",
   "experiment": "Snapshot two importers' spot lists daily for 90 days; join a roaster's purchase + sell-through ledger; test whether cup score/price residuals predict margin.",
   "logistics": 2,
   "density": 2,
   "longtail": 3,
   "breadth": 2,
   "partial_obs": 2,
   "cadence": 2,
   "ops_dependence": 3,
   "gate_menu": "Y",
   "gate_outcome": "Y",
   "gate_constraints": "Y",
   "gate_feedback": "P",
   "reject_reasons": "Attention · Complexity · Scale",
   "sales_tape": "Buy spot → warehouse release → roast → wholesale/retail sale over weeks → fading write-down",
   "confidence": "medium-high",
   "sources": "https://www.cafeimports.com/north-america/blog/purchase-planning/coffee-ordering-faq/ | https://royalcoffee.com/how-to-buy/ | https://cupofexcellence.org/about-coe-auctions/"
  },
  {
   "rank": 28,
   "id": "bales",
   "name": "Recovered-material bales (OCC, mixed paper, PET/HDPE)",
   "sector": "Recycling",
   "group": "industrial",
   "overlap": "Adjacent: Scrap metal and e-waste recovery (different materials)",
   "structural_fit": 81.5,
   "gate_multiplier": 0.9,
   "perimeter": "",
   "perimeter_multiplier": 0.95,
   "actionable_score": 69.7,
   "access": 3,
   "scale": "BaleBid snapshot: 590 listings (1,153 t paper, 1,328 t cardboard, 7,959 t plastic); ReMA PS-2026 defines dozens of paper grades; broader flow bilateral.",
   "data": "RecyclingMarkets.net SMP (subscription; Sep 2026 OCC $90/t, mixed $35–40/t, PET 2.61¢/lb, nat. HDPE 36.5¢/lb); Fastmarkets RISI; Resource Recycling monthly (free).",
   "menu": "Load (grade × moisture × contamination × origin × lane) × tons × $/t delivered",
   "consumption": 3,
   "risk": "Contamination grade only at mill receipt; commodity-like index (few grades) limits long-tail edge; export rules; brokers earn $/t spreads.",
   "experiment": "A broker's 18 months of loads incl. quotes not taken; join mill claims; test whether P34 abstains on high-claim generators/lanes.",
   "logistics": 3,
   "density": 2,
   "longtail": 2,
   "breadth": 1,
   "partial_obs": 3,
   "cadence": 2,
   "ops_dependence": 3,
   "gate_menu": "Y",
   "gate_outcome": "Y",
   "gate_constraints": "Y",
   "gate_feedback": "P",
   "reject_reasons": "Operational fit · Scale · Complexity",
   "sales_tape": "Buy → truck/ship → mill receipt & grading → claims within 2 business days → downgrade/rejection → payment",
   "confidence": "medium-high",
   "sources": "http://resource-recycling.com/recycling/2026/09/09/bale-pricing-mostly-flat-for-september/ | https://www.recycledmaterials.org/wp-content/uploads/Guidelines-for-Paper-Stock-Revisions-Jan-2026-1.pdf | https://www.balebid.com/"
  },
  {
   "rank": 30,
   "id": "unclaimed",
   "name": "Unclaimed freight, abandoned cargo & customs (General Order) auctions",
   "sector": "Logistics / liquidation",
   "group": "t2",
   "overlap": "Adjacent: Liquidation and B-stock pallets; Storage unit auctions (different supply)",
   "structural_fit": 85.2,
   "gate_multiplier": 0.81,
   "perimeter": "",
   "perimeter_multiplier": 1.0,
   "actionable_score": 69.0,
   "access": 3,
   "scale": "GO goods saleable 6 months after import (19 CFR 127.4); auction frequency/lot counts unpublished; Fr8 weekly.",
   "data": "No public results archive (unverified); Salvex/HiBid closed lots for some liquidators.",
   "menu": "Lot (container/pallet × declared contents × condition × export-only flag × location) × bid",
   "consumption": 2,
   "risk": "Contents/condition largely hidden; export-only lots; sealed bids = your own passes only; sporadic supply.",
   "experiment": "Log every GO/Fr8 lot and bid decision for 6 months; join resale ledger; test if manifest features + inspection notes predict recovery.",
   "logistics": 3,
   "density": 1,
   "longtail": 3,
   "breadth": 3,
   "partial_obs": 3,
   "cadence": 2,
   "ops_dependence": 3,
   "gate_menu": "Y",
   "gate_outcome": "P",
   "gate_constraints": "Y",
   "gate_feedback": "P",
   "reject_reasons": "Complexity · Attention · Capacity",
   "sales_tape": "Win → pay in 2 days → pickup ≤15 days → sort → resale by channel → unsellable disposal",
   "confidence": "medium",
   "sources": "https://cwsmarketing.com/faqs/faqs-us-customs-go-merchandise/ | https://www.ecfr.gov/current/title-19/chapter-I/part-127 | https://fr8auctions.com/turning-lost-freight-into-lucrative-opportunities/"
  },
  {
   "rank": 31,
   "id": "archsalvage",
   "name": "Architectural salvage & reclaimed building materials",
   "sector": "Construction reuse",
   "group": "t2",
   "overlap": "Adjacent: Construction material surplus (new excess) — reclaimed/deconstruction supply is new",
   "structural_fit": 88.9,
   "gate_multiplier": 0.81,
   "perimeter": "",
   "perimeter_multiplier": 0.95,
   "actionable_score": 68.4,
   "access": 3,
   "scale": "ReStore count commonly cited ~900 US (unverified); no sales figures; inventory unlisted.",
   "data": "Reclaimed-lumber price pages (dealers); no index; no API.",
   "menu": "Lot (material × spec × condition × haul distance × buyer job) × bid / pass",
   "consumption": 2,
   "risk": "Condition variance and haul cost dominate; structural reuse needs re-grading/engineer sign-off; lead paint and asbestos; walk-in inventory means the menu must be built by hand.",
   "experiment": "Salvage yard's 12 months of lots offered/taken with haul and re-milling cost vs realised sales.",
   "logistics": 3,
   "density": 2,
   "longtail": 3,
   "breadth": 3,
   "partial_obs": 3,
   "cadence": 2,
   "ops_dependence": 3,
   "gate_menu": "Y",
   "gate_outcome": "P",
   "gate_constraints": "Y",
   "gate_feedback": "P",
   "reject_reasons": "Operational fit · Complexity · Capacity",
   "sales_tape": "Buy → deconstruct/haul → de-nail, re-mill → sale to a job or yard → yield loss, lead/asbestos disposal",
   "confidence": "low-medium",
   "sources": "https://www.habitat.org/restores | https://thegreenmissioninc.com/the-lumber-market-in-2026/"
  },
  {
   "rank": 32,
   "id": "tires",
   "name": "Tire wholesale — closeouts, used & retread",
   "sector": "Auto consumables",
   "group": "t2",
   "overlap": "Adjacent: Auto parts, OEM take-offs and cores",
   "structural_fit": 77.8,
   "gate_multiplier": 0.9,
   "perimeter": "",
   "perimeter_multiplier": 0.95,
   "actionable_score": 66.5,
   "access": 2,
   "scale": "ATD: 90,000+ SKUs, 110+ DCs, 80,000+ customers; ~250M scrap tires/yr in US (79% to end markets); closeout flow unverified.",
   "data": "Retail comps (Tire Rack); MTD Facts Issue (paywalled); no closeout index.",
   "menu": "SKU (size × brand × model × DOT age × condition) × units × cost; used lots by grade",
   "consumption": 3,
   "risk": "Closeout flow and tire-only margin unverified; bulky low value density; DOT-age risk on aged closeouts.",
   "experiment": "A regional tire shop's 12 months of distributor closeout offers + used-lot buys vs sell-through; score by size/age; measure pass value on slow sizes.",
   "logistics": 2,
   "density": 2,
   "longtail": 2,
   "breadth": 3,
   "partial_obs": 2,
   "cadence": 2,
   "ops_dependence": 3,
   "gate_menu": "Y",
   "gate_outcome": "Y",
   "gate_constraints": "Y",
   "gate_feedback": "P",
   "reject_reasons": "Scale · Attention · Operational fit",
   "sales_tape": "Buy → LTL → fit/resell over weeks → warranty/returns → scrap disposal fee",
   "confidence": "medium-low",
   "sources": "https://www.atd.com/about-us/article/we-are-american-tire-distributors/ | https://www.ustires.org/advocacy/tire-recycling-markets | https://www.moderntiredealer.com/home/news/55263033/mtds-facts-issue-examines-us-tire-market"
  },
  {
   "rank": 32,
   "id": "solar",
   "name": "Second-hand & excess solar panels and inverters",
   "sector": "Energy hardware",
   "group": "industrial",
   "overlap": "New",
   "structural_fit": 77.8,
   "gate_multiplier": 0.9,
   "perimeter": "",
   "perimeter_multiplier": 0.95,
   "actionable_score": 66.5,
   "access": 2,
   "scale": "Global secondary ≈1 GW/yr; US exports >50 MW in 2025; EnergyBin 14,462 modules posted early 2026; 98% of 'resale' modules in 2025 were excess NEW stock.",
   "data": "EnergyBin resources (used avg $0.070/W 2025 vs new DDP US $0.290/W); pvXchange/secondsol price lists; no US transaction index.",
   "menu": "Lot (make × model × wattage × condition/test data × location) × panels × $/W",
   "consumption": 2,
   "risk": "Sellers list without flash data; margins 'often too thin'; EPA hazardous-waste determination if unfit; UFLPA traceability.",
   "experiment": "Reseller's 12 months of lots with test results and sales; test whether P34 abstains on untested/low-W lots.",
   "logistics": 3,
   "density": 2,
   "longtail": 2,
   "breadth": 2,
   "partial_obs": 3,
   "cadence": 2,
   "ops_dependence": 3,
   "gate_menu": "Y",
   "gate_outcome": "Y",
   "gate_constraints": "Y",
   "gate_feedback": "P",
   "reject_reasons": "Complexity · Operational fit · Prediction",
   "sales_tape": "Buy → flash/EL test → pallet freight or export → sale to installer/exporter → breakage/hazardous-waste determination",
   "confidence": "medium-high",
   "sources": "https://resources.energybin.com/solar-resources/global-solar-panel-resale-poised-to-take-off-despite-challenges | https://www.epa.gov/hw/solar-panel-frequent-questions | https://www.secondsol.com/en/index.htm"
  },
  {
   "rank": 32,
   "id": "smb",
   "name": "Micro-acquisitions of small businesses (BizBuySell / Acquire.com tier)",
   "sector": "Venture",
   "group": "t3",
   "overlap": "Adjacent: Micro-website and newsletter acquisitions (Tier 3, sub-$5k) — main-street tier",
   "structural_fit": 77.8,
   "gate_multiplier": 0.9,
   "perimeter": "",
   "perimeter_multiplier": 0.95,
   "actionable_score": 66.5,
   "access": 2,
   "scale": "BizBuySell 2025: 9,586 closed deals, $7.95B; median price $350k, 0.69× revenue, 2.61× cash flow, 170 days to close; Acquire.com SaaS 3.9× profit, ~81 days on market.",
   "data": "BizBuySell Insight Report (quarterly); Acquire.com multiples report; no API; post-close outcomes not tracked.",
   "menu": "Listing (industry × geography × revenue × SDE × asking × terms) × offer / pass",
   "consumption": 3,
   "risk": "Paper boundary: feedback arrives years later; one operator cannot reach 100+ observed deals → pooled/enterprise (search-fund or roll-up) data only.",
   "experiment": "Roll-up or search-fund platform with 100+ acquisitions and a decline log; otherwise blueprint only.",
   "logistics": 1,
   "density": 2,
   "longtail": 3,
   "breadth": 3,
   "partial_obs": 3,
   "cadence": 1,
   "ops_dependence": 3,
   "gate_menu": "Y",
   "gate_outcome": "Y",
   "gate_constraints": "Y",
   "gate_feedback": "P",
   "reject_reasons": "Complexity · Prediction · Capacity",
   "sales_tape": "LOI → diligence → close → post-close cash flow over years → seller-note default / earn-out",
   "confidence": "high (BizBuySell/Acquire figures)",
   "sources": "https://www.bizbuysell.com/blog/2025-year-in-review/ | https://blog.acquire.com/acquire-com-biannual-acquisition-multiples-report-jan-2026/ | https://ctacquisitions.com/guides/small-business-ma-statistics-2026/"
  },
  {
   "rank": 32,
   "id": "uco",
   "name": "Used cooking oil (UCO) / waste-oil collection routes",
   "sector": "Renewable feedstock / routes",
   "group": "t4",
   "overlap": "New — not in the 135",
   "structural_fit": 77.8,
   "gate_multiplier": 0.9,
   "perimeter": "",
   "perimeter_multiplier": 0.95,
   "actionable_score": 66.5,
   "access": 2,
   "scale": "Restaurant-side rebates $2.00–4.50/gal (avg ~$3, 2025); national volume not verified (industry-cited 3B+ lb/yr, unverified).",
   "data": "The Jacobsen UCO spec/price (IOSCO-compliant) and Argus US UCO assessments (paid); renderer buy prices negotiated, not public.",
   "menu": "Stop (restaurant × est. gallons/month × rebate × route position) × sign / drop × route",
   "consumption": 3,
   "risk": "Sticky incumbents and permitting are the binding constraints; price keyed to RFS/45Z/LCFS credit values; theft (Dec 2025 multistate ring); per-stop yield hidden until pickup.",
   "experiment": "Collector's 12 months of stops (signed and passed), pickup volumes, deductions and route costs; score stop selection under route density.",
   "logistics": 3,
   "density": 2,
   "longtail": 2,
   "breadth": 2,
   "partial_obs": 2,
   "cadence": 2,
   "ops_dependence": 3,
   "gate_menu": "Y",
   "gate_outcome": "Y",
   "gate_constraints": "Y",
   "gate_feedback": "P",
   "reject_reasons": "Operational fit · Scale · Capacity",
   "sales_tape": "Pickup → volume & FFA/moisture test at renderer → deduction → payment; theft losses",
   "confidence": "medium-low",
   "sources": "https://greaseconnections.com/used-cooking-oil-pricing-guide/ | https://thejacobsen.com/about/methodology/uco-spec/ | https://www.argusmedia.com/en/methodology/key-commodity-prices/argus-us-uco-price-assessments"
  },
  {
   "rank": 36,
   "id": "textiles",
   "name": "Used-clothing bales, credential clothing & fabric deadstock",
   "sector": "Recycling / apparel",
   "group": "industrial",
   "overlap": "Adjacent: Deadstock and branded apparel lots (new goods) — this is used/export",
   "structural_fit": 81.5,
   "gate_multiplier": 0.81,
   "perimeter": "",
   "perimeter_multiplier": 1.0,
   "actionable_score": 66.0,
   "access": 3,
   "scale": "Buffalo Export ~50M lb/yr; Bank & Vogue in 34 countries; grades supplier-defined (Cream/A/B/C); listing counts unverified.",
   "data": "No public price index — every supplier quotes only; landed-cost method; Apex Fashion Lab deadstock market est. $6.7B (unverified).",
   "menu": "Lot (source × grade × weight basis × destination) × lb × $/lb landed",
   "consumption": 2,
   "risk": "Yield of saleable grade unknown until sorted; bale-level attribution hard (gate 'Outcome' = Partial); weeks–months cycle; destination import bans.",
   "experiment": "Sorter's 12 months of bale purchases with sort yields and graded sales; test if source/grade features predict yield-adjusted margin.",
   "logistics": 3,
   "density": 2,
   "longtail": 3,
   "breadth": 2,
   "partial_obs": 3,
   "cadence": 1,
   "ops_dependence": 3,
   "gate_menu": "Y",
   "gate_outcome": "P",
   "gate_constraints": "Y",
   "gate_feedback": "P",
   "reject_reasons": "Complexity · Operational fit · Attention",
   "sales_tape": "Buy → ocean freight → sort → graded resale by destination → unsold/rag write-off",
   "confidence": "low-medium",
   "sources": "https://www.bankvogue.com/blog/credential-clothing-bale-guide-for-buying/ | https://www.buffaloexportllc.com/credentialclothing.html | https://resale.queenofraw.com/"
  },
  {
   "rank": 36,
   "id": "mediaremnant",
   "name": "Traditional media remnant inventory (TV / radio / print / static OOH)",
   "sector": "Demand — offline media",
   "group": "demand",
   "overlap": "Adjacent: Small-space advertising; Display and programmatic inventory — offline remnant is new",
   "structural_fit": 81.5,
   "gate_multiplier": 0.81,
   "perimeter": "",
   "perimeter_multiplier": 1.0,
   "actionable_score": 66.0,
   "access": 2,
   "scale": "No volume or discount figures verified; agencies claim large discounts to rate card (unverified).",
   "data": "No public price feed; measurement via response/attribution — unverified.",
   "menu": "Slot (station × daypart × week × creative × price) × buy / pass",
   "consumption": 3,
   "risk": "Hidden variable is delivery of the asset itself (airing not guaranteed); attribution weak; keep the novel slice offline — DOOH overlaps the catalogue's demand group.",
   "experiment": "DR advertiser's 12 months of remnant buys/passes with response data; test abstention on preempt-prone dayparts.",
   "logistics": 1,
   "density": 3,
   "longtail": 3,
   "breadth": 3,
   "partial_obs": 2,
   "cadence": 3,
   "ops_dependence": 2,
   "gate_menu": "Y",
   "gate_outcome": "P",
   "gate_constraints": "Y",
   "gate_feedback": "P",
   "reject_reasons": "Time · Attention",
   "sales_tape": "Buy → airing (no guarantee; preemptable) → response/attribution → make-goods",
   "confidence": "low-medium",
   "sources": "https://www.simulmedia.com/blog/expert-guide-to-remnant-inventory-and-tv-advertising-strategies"
  },
  {
   "rank": 38,
   "id": "containers",
   "name": "Used shipping-container resale & one-way leasing",
   "sector": "Logistics",
   "group": "capacity",
   "overlap": "Adjacent: Container repositioning (operator side) — this is trading/SOC leasing",
   "structural_fit": 70.4,
   "gate_multiplier": 0.9,
   "perimeter": "",
   "perimeter_multiplier": 1.0,
   "actionable_score": 63.4,
   "access": 2,
   "scale": "xChange: 1,700+ vetted partners, 2,500+ locations, 29,000+ containers across 150+ NA depots; 2026 US delivered: 20' CW $2,800–4,000, 40'HC WWT $3,500–5,500.",
   "data": "xChange monthly market report and price/leasing indices (paywalled); retailer price guides; one-way credits (Shanghai→LA 40'HC pickup credit $1,460, 135 free days).",
   "menu": "Box (size × grade × depot × date) × buy/lease × price or one-way credit",
   "consumption": 1,
   "risk": "Subscription gate; regional imbalances shift quickly; survey vs grade disputes; small spread on trading.",
   "experiment": "Use xChange history for 12 months of listings + one-way credits; join a trader's buys/leases; test if imbalance features predict per-box margin.",
   "logistics": 3,
   "density": 2,
   "longtail": 2,
   "breadth": 2,
   "partial_obs": 2,
   "cadence": 2,
   "ops_dependence": 3,
   "gate_menu": "Y",
   "gate_outcome": "Y",
   "gate_constraints": "Y",
   "gate_feedback": "P",
   "reject_reasons": "Operational fit · Attention · Capacity",
   "sales_tape": "Buy/lease → survey → trucking → resale or drop-off → damage/repair charges",
   "confidence": "medium-high",
   "sources": "https://www.container-xchange.com/pricing | https://www.container-xchange.com/blog/one-way-container | https://containerone.net/blogs/news/how-much-does-a-shipping-container-cost-complete-2026-price-breakdown"
  },
  {
   "rank": 38,
   "id": "asics",
   "name": "Used crypto-mining hardware (ASIC / GPU rigs)",
   "sector": "Energy hardware — crypto-adjacent",
   "group": "industrial",
   "overlap": "New (hardware is ordinary commerce, but value keyed to BTC hashprice)",
   "structural_fit": 70.4,
   "gate_multiplier": 0.9,
   "perimeter": "",
   "perimeter_multiplier": 1.0,
   "actionable_score": 63.4,
   "access": 3,
   "scale": "Small model universe (~10 current-gen SHA-256); prices $10–30/TH (Hashrate Index 2026); hashprice $31.89/PH/day (Aug 2026) near breakeven.",
   "data": "Hashrate Index / Luxor ASIC Price Index (three efficiency tiers); hashprice series; weekly roundups (free).",
   "menu": "Lot (model × condition/grade × qty × location) × price/TH",
   "consumption": 2,
   "risk": "Paper boundary: target dominated by one irreducible shock (BTC price/hashprice); tariffs 21.6–57.6% on imports; breadth low.",
   "experiment": "Only as a hardware-dealer ledger test with hashprice as a feature; expect low incremental value over a hashprice rule.",
   "logistics": 2,
   "density": 2,
   "longtail": 2,
   "breadth": 1,
   "partial_obs": 2,
   "cadence": 3,
   "ops_dependence": 2,
   "gate_menu": "Y",
   "gate_outcome": "Y",
   "gate_constraints": "Y",
   "gate_feedback": "P",
   "reject_reasons": "Time · Prediction · Scale",
   "sales_tape": "Buy → burn-in → resale or hosting → hashboard failures → obsolescence write-down",
   "confidence": "medium",
   "sources": "https://hashrateindex.com/blog/top-10-bitcoin-mining-asic-machines-for-2026/ | https://kaboomracks.com/faq/ | https://www.theblock.co/post/365793/trump-tariffs-bitcoin-miners"
  },
  {
   "rank": 38,
   "id": "appliances",
   "name": "Scratch-and-dent & returned appliance/furniture truckloads",
   "sector": "Liquidation",
   "group": "t2",
   "overlap": "Adjacent: Returned-goods resale; Appliance and electronics repair-and-flip",
   "structural_fit": 70.4,
   "gate_multiplier": 0.9,
   "perimeter": "",
   "perimeter_multiplier": 1.0,
   "actionable_score": 63.4,
   "access": 1,
   "scale": "Truckload = 40–80 units, $20–35k; Best Buy S&D loads 95% no repair / 4% minor / 1% parts; returns loads 70/10/20.",
   "data": "Manifests per load; B-Stock appliance auctions (unverified); no index.",
   "menu": "Load (program × manifest × repair-mix expectation × freight) × take/pass",
   "consumption": 1,
   "risk": "Rationed supply (enrolment caps) → menu is thin; hidden functional faults; warehouse and delivery needed.",
   "experiment": "Discount appliance store's 12 months of loads (taken/passed) + repair and sell-through ledger.",
   "logistics": 3,
   "density": 2,
   "longtail": 2,
   "breadth": 2,
   "partial_obs": 3,
   "cadence": 2,
   "ops_dependence": 3,
   "gate_menu": "Y",
   "gate_outcome": "Y",
   "gate_constraints": "Y",
   "gate_feedback": "P",
   "reject_reasons": "Capacity · Operational fit · Scale",
   "sales_tape": "Receive → test/repair → showroom/online sale over weeks → warranty claims",
   "confidence": "medium",
   "sources": "https://neuappliancewholesale.com/pages/best-buy-appliance-liquidation-program | https://neuappliancewholesale.com/pages/wholesale-appliance-liquidation-programs"
  },
  {
   "rank": 41,
   "id": "gradedcoll",
   "name": "Graded coins, stamps & comics (PCGS/NGC/CGC; Heritage, GreatCollections)",
   "sector": "Collectibles",
   "group": "t1",
   "overlap": "Adjacent: Trading cards — sport and TCG (same family, missing lines)",
   "structural_fit": 63.0,
   "gate_multiplier": 1.0,
   "perimeter": "",
   "perimeter_multiplier": 1.0,
   "actionable_score": 63.0,
   "access": 3,
   "scale": "Heritage archive: millions of lots (free with registration); weekly auctions across coins/comics/currency; GreatCollections $250M+ sold.",
   "data": "Heritage prices-realised archive; GreatCollections archive; PCGS Price Guide + Population Report + Public API; CGC census; NGC guides.",
   "menu": "Lot (cert × grade × CAC × auction × date) × bid",
   "consumption": 0,
   "risk": "Boundary example: cleanest telemetry but no consumption and low ops → open capital competes away the edge; round-trip fees dominate.",
   "experiment": "Cheap benchmark: replay 5 years of Heritage archives; likely shows P34 ≈ comps rule; use to calibrate, not to operate.",
   "logistics": 1,
   "density": 3,
   "longtail": 3,
   "breadth": 3,
   "partial_obs": 1,
   "cadence": 2,
   "ops_dependence": 1,
   "gate_menu": "Y",
   "gate_outcome": "Y",
   "gate_constraints": "Y",
   "gate_feedback": "Y",
   "reject_reasons": "Attention · Prediction",
   "sales_tape": "Win → hold/regrade → resale at auction (weeks) → round-trip fees 20–30%",
   "confidence": "medium",
   "sources": "https://www.ha.com/information/about-auction-archives.s | https://www.pcgs.com/publicapi | https://www.cgccomics.com/population-report/"
  },
  {
   "rank": 42,
   "id": "chassis",
   "name": "Intermodal chassis / trailer / reefer spot rental",
   "sector": "Logistics capacity",
   "group": "capacity",
   "overlap": "Adjacent: Container repositioning; Equipment rental — chassis/trailer pools are new",
   "structural_fit": 81.5,
   "gate_multiplier": 0.81,
   "perimeter": "",
   "perimeter_multiplier": 0.95,
   "actionable_score": 62.7,
   "access": 1,
   "scale": "DCLI daily rates from 1 Jul 2026: $28.55 (Southeast) to $47.50 (Pacific SW) incl. damage waiver; LA/LB short-term $20/day → $10 after 90 days.",
   "data": "DCLI public rate page; UIIA per-diem/free-day schedules; no API.",
   "menu": "Equipment (chassis/trailer/reefer × pool × location × date × term) × rent / reposition / decline",
   "consumption": 3,
   "risk": "Pool access gated; detention/demurrage accounting messy (FMC rule under OSRA 2022); attribution of per-day cost to a load is partial.",
   "experiment": "Drayage carrier's 6 months of daily chassis/trailer decisions with per-diem, penalties and load revenue.",
   "logistics": 3,
   "density": 3,
   "longtail": 2,
   "breadth": 2,
   "partial_obs": 2,
   "cadence": 3,
   "ops_dependence": 3,
   "gate_menu": "Y",
   "gate_outcome": "P",
   "gate_constraints": "Y",
   "gate_feedback": "P",
   "reject_reasons": "Capacity · Time · Operational fit",
   "sales_tape": "On-hire → use → gate fees, repositioning penalties ($250), damage disputes, tolls → off-hire; detention/demurrage",
   "confidence": "high (chassis rates) / low (trailer marketplaces)",
   "sources": "https://dcli.com/daily-market-rates/ | https://uiia.intermodal.org/documents/uiia/newuiia-Home.pdf"
  },
  {
   "rank": 43,
   "id": "emptyleg",
   "name": "Empty-leg & repositioning charter capacity",
   "sector": "Travel capacity",
   "group": "capacity",
   "overlap": "Adjacent: Air cargo capacity",
   "structural_fit": 70.4,
   "gate_multiplier": 0.9,
   "perimeter": "",
   "perimeter_multiplier": 0.95,
   "actionable_score": 60.2,
   "access": 1,
   "scale": "Avinode 3,400+ aircraft, 13,500+ professionals; ~300k requests/month (2018); ~40% of European bizav flights are empty legs; legs/day unpublished.",
   "data": "Avinode API (Ultimate); list prices on apps; no index.",
   "menu": "Leg (aircraft × route × date/time × discount) × buy/resell or match to a client request",
   "consumption": 3,
   "risk": "Leg may not fly; matching market rather than inventory; subscription gate.",
   "experiment": "Broker's 12 months of Avinode requests, quotes and booked legs; score match decisions.",
   "logistics": 2,
   "density": 2,
   "longtail": 2,
   "breadth": 2,
   "partial_obs": 2,
   "cadence": 3,
   "ops_dependence": 2,
   "gate_menu": "Y",
   "gate_outcome": "Y",
   "gate_constraints": "Y",
   "gate_feedback": "P",
   "reject_reasons": "Time · Operational fit",
   "sales_tape": "Book → flight flies or cancels (operator may cancel) → client payment → refunds",
   "confidence": "medium",
   "sources": "https://avinode.com/pricing/ | https://nbaa.org/aircraft-operations/part-135/air-charter-brokers/14-cfr-part-295-air-charter-broker-questions-answers/ | https://theflyingengineer.com/private-jet-empty-legs/"
  },
  {
   "rank": 43,
   "id": "land",
   "name": "Vacant-land & rural-parcel flipping",
   "sector": "Real estate",
   "group": "t3",
   "overlap": "Adjacent: Tax lien certificates (flagged) — outright parcel purchase is ordinary property",
   "structural_fit": 70.4,
   "gate_multiplier": 0.9,
   "perimeter": "",
   "perimeter_multiplier": 0.95,
   "actionable_score": 60.2,
   "access": 3,
   "scale": "LandWatch 526,047 US listings (Sep 2026), ~192k listed in last 60 days (≈3,000/day); off-market parcel counts unverified.",
   "data": "Land.com/LandWatch listings (no public API); county assessor/recorder; no authoritative rural-lot sold index.",
   "menu": "Parcel (county × acreage × access × zoning × back taxes × asking) × offer / pass",
   "consumption": 0,
   "risk": "Slow realisation; title/access/wetland defects; seller-financed notes stretch feedback to years; no consumer.",
   "experiment": "Land flipper's 3 years of mail-campaign offers (accepted/declined) + resale; test if P34 beats their offer formula.",
   "logistics": 1,
   "density": 3,
   "longtail": 3,
   "breadth": 3,
   "partial_obs": 3,
   "cadence": 1,
   "ops_dependence": 2,
   "gate_menu": "Y",
   "gate_outcome": "Y",
   "gate_constraints": "Y",
   "gate_feedback": "P",
   "reject_reasons": "Attention · Prediction · Complexity",
   "sales_tape": "Offer → title/escrow → resale or seller-financed note over months–years → buyer default",
   "confidence": "medium",
   "sources": "https://retipster.com/dodd-frank/ | https://www.landwatch.com/land | https://www.landwatch.com/land/listed-60-days"
  },
  {
   "rank": 43,
   "id": "ddgs",
   "name": "DDGS / ethanol co-product spot (distillers grains, corn oil)",
   "sector": "Feed / agri",
   "group": "industrial",
   "overlap": "Adjacent: Industrial by-products and side streams; Hay, forage and feed lots",
   "structural_fit": 70.4,
   "gate_multiplier": 0.9,
   "perimeter": "",
   "perimeter_multiplier": 0.95,
   "actionable_score": 60.2,
   "access": 1,
   "scale": "Plant count/volumes not verified this pass (RFA data).",
   "data": "USDA AMS National Weekly Grain Co-Products Report (AMS_3618) — DDGS, distillers corn oil, value per bushel; regional text reports; MyMarketNews.",
   "menu": "Lot (plant × product × moisture/protein × tons × week) × FOB price × haul → feedlot demand",
   "consumption": 3,
   "risk": "Few product types (breadth low); quality variance (moisture, protein, fat after oil extraction) not in the published price; corn/ethanol correlation; relationship-heavy access.",
   "experiment": "Feed merchandiser's 12 months of plant-gate offers taken/passed vs USDA weekly and realised delivered margin.",
   "logistics": 3,
   "density": 2,
   "longtail": 2,
   "breadth": 1,
   "partial_obs": 2,
   "cadence": 2,
   "ops_dependence": 3,
   "gate_menu": "Y",
   "gate_outcome": "Y",
   "gate_constraints": "Y",
   "gate_feedback": "P",
   "reject_reasons": "Operational fit · Scale",
   "sales_tape": "Buy → truck → feedlot delivery → quality claims → payment",
   "confidence": "medium (data) / low (practice)",
   "sources": "https://mymarketnews.ams.usda.gov/viewReport/3618"
  },
  {
   "rank": 46,
   "id": "wool",
   "name": "Wool, hides & animal by-product auctions (AWEX; packer hide tenders)",
   "sector": "Industrial / agri",
   "group": "industrial",
   "overlap": "New",
   "structural_fit": 63.0,
   "gate_multiplier": 1.0,
   "perimeter": "",
   "perimeter_multiplier": 0.95,
   "actionable_score": 59.9,
   "access": 2,
   "scale": "Weekly offerings 34k–41k bales (8–14% passed in); ~85% of Australian wool sold at auction; bale ≈180 kg greasy.",
   "data": "AWEX market reports, EMI, forecasts; AWTA certificates; USDA AMS by-product reports (free); The Jacobsen (paid).",
   "menu": "Lot (micron × length × strength × VM × bales) × bid c/kg clean",
   "consumption": 3,
   "risk": "Boundary example: objectively measured pre-sale → little hidden mispricing; passed-in lots are an excellent declined-option record but the edge is thin.",
   "experiment": "Cheap benchmark: AWEX passed-in vs re-offered price history; expect small P34 edge.",
   "logistics": 2,
   "density": 2,
   "longtail": 1,
   "breadth": 2,
   "partial_obs": 1,
   "cadence": 2,
   "ops_dependence": 2,
   "gate_menu": "Y",
   "gate_outcome": "Y",
   "gate_constraints": "Y",
   "gate_feedback": "Y",
   "reject_reasons": "Scale · Operational fit",
   "sales_tape": "Buy → dump/ship → mill sale → claims",
   "confidence": "medium-high (wool) / low (hides)",
   "sources": "https://www.awex.com.au/auction/ | https://www.sheepcentral.com/wool-prices-tumble-under-weight-of-bigger-offering/ | https://www.ams.usda.gov/mnreports/nw_ls444.txt"
  },
  {
   "rank": 47,
   "id": "pawn",
   "name": "Pawn lending against long-tail collateral",
   "sector": "Finance / commerce — regulated",
   "group": "core",
   "overlap": "Adjacent: Micro-lending — individual (Active experiment) — collateralised variant",
   "structural_fit": 74.1,
   "gate_multiplier": 1.0,
   "perimeter": "",
   "perimeter_multiplier": 0.7,
   "actionable_score": 51.9,
   "access": 1,
   "scale": "~7,771 US stores (NPA); FirstCash 1,207 US stores, avg loan $312 (2025), redemption ~85%, retail margin ~42–43%, inventory turns 2.8×/yr.",
   "data": "FirstCash/EZCORP 10-Ks (aggregate); Bravo POS holds declined-loan and offer data internally; eBay sold for resale comps.",
   "menu": "Walk-in (item × appraisal × requested amount × term) × offer amount / decline",
   "consumption": 1,
   "risk": "Regulated consumer credit → gated launch like micro-lending; declined offers exist but only in POS; forfeiture resale months later.",
   "experiment": "Enterprise lane with a chain using Bravo: 2 years of offers (incl. declines) + redemption + resale; shadow-score offer amounts.",
   "logistics": 1,
   "density": 3,
   "longtail": 3,
   "breadth": 3,
   "partial_obs": 3,
   "cadence": 2,
   "ops_dependence": 3,
   "gate_menu": "Y",
   "gate_outcome": "Y",
   "gate_constraints": "Y",
   "gate_feedback": "Y",
   "reject_reasons": "Prediction · Attention · Complexity",
   "sales_tape": "Loan → fees → redemption or forfeiture → inventory at principal → resale over months → markdown",
   "confidence": "medium-high",
   "sources": "https://www.stocktitan.net/sec-filings/FCFS/10-k-first-cash-holdings-inc-files-annual-report-b004a84f37ec.html | https://pawn-software.com/pawn-licensing-us.htm"
  },
  {
   "rank": 48,
   "id": "cannabis",
   "name": "State-legal cannabis B2B wholesale (LeafLink-class)",
   "sector": "Consumables — regulated",
   "group": "core",
   "overlap": "New (regulated commerce)",
   "structural_fit": 81.5,
   "gate_multiplier": 0.9,
   "perimeter": "",
   "perimeter_multiplier": 0.7,
   "actionable_score": 51.3,
   "access": 1,
   "scale": "LeafLink: 34 states, 12,000+ companies, >$5B annual GMV, 'millions of orders'; ~398,000 unique SKUs (141,488 flower) in the 2025 pricing guide.",
   "data": "LeafLink Wholesale Pricing Guide (annual); Cannabis Benchmarks US Spot Index ($1,123/lb, 25 Sep 2026); Headset retail data; METRC/BioTrack (not public per lot).",
   "menu": "SKU (brand × product × potency/COA × batch) × units × wholesale price × terms",
   "consumption": 3,
   "risk": "Federal illegality (280E, banking, no interstate) — HyperC would gate or exclude; licence required to hold inventory; retail sell-through is the real outcome.",
   "experiment": "Enterprise-only: a multi-store retailer's 2 years of LeafLink orders + catalogue snapshots + POS sell-through; shadow-score reorders; do not run on membership.",
   "logistics": 2,
   "density": 3,
   "longtail": 3,
   "breadth": 3,
   "partial_obs": 2,
   "cadence": 2,
   "ops_dependence": 3,
   "gate_menu": "Y",
   "gate_outcome": "Y",
   "gate_constraints": "Y",
   "gate_feedback": "P",
   "reject_reasons": "Attention · Prediction · Complexity",
   "sales_tape": "Order → licensed transport (manifest) → retail sell-through over weeks → price compression → expiry/destruction",
   "confidence": "high (scale) / medium (economics)",
   "sources": "https://www.leaflink.com/press/leaflink-marks-a-decade-of-powering-cannabis-commerce-growth-across-34-markets-and-billions-in-sales/ | https://www.leaflink.com/press/leaflinks-2025-wholesale-cannabis-pricing-guide-now-available/ | https://www.cannabisbenchmarks.com/reports/"
  },
  {
   "rank": 48,
   "id": "avparts",
   "name": "Aircraft used-serviceable material (USM) & expendables",
   "sector": "Aviation",
   "group": "industrial",
   "overlap": "New",
   "structural_fit": 81.5,
   "gate_multiplier": 0.9,
   "perimeter": "",
   "perimeter_multiplier": 0.7,
   "actionable_score": 51.3,
   "access": 1,
   "scale": "PartsBase 15B+ line items, 3.3M repair capabilities; USM market $7.8B (2025) → $12.1B (2035); ~1,100 aircraft retirements/yr.",
   "data": "No public price index; quote histories inside subscriptions; ILS SalesEdge analytics.",
   "menu": "Part (P/N × condition tag × trace × qty × source × price) × buy/pass vs RFQ/AOG demand",
   "consumption": 2,
   "risk": "Accreditation and trace paperwork gate; shop-visit findings only after purchase; ITAR/EAR; unapproved-parts liability.",
   "experiment": "Enterprise lane with an ASA-100 distributor: 3 years of RFQs, buys, teardown results and sales; test abstention on BER-prone P/Ns.",
   "logistics": 3,
   "density": 2,
   "longtail": 3,
   "breadth": 3,
   "partial_obs": 3,
   "cadence": 2,
   "ops_dependence": 3,
   "gate_menu": "Y",
   "gate_outcome": "Y",
   "gate_constraints": "Y",
   "gate_feedback": "P",
   "reject_reasons": "Complexity · Capacity · Attention",
   "sales_tape": "Buy → inspection/repair (shop visit, BER risk) → sale → warranty returns",
   "confidence": "medium",
   "sources": "https://aviation.partsbase.com/partsbase-landing-page-homepage/ | https://www.snsinsider.com/reports/used-serviceable-material-market-8691 | https://www.aviationsuppliers.org/asa-100"
  },
  {
   "rank": 48,
   "id": "labcons",
   "name": "Short-dated lab reagents & medical consumables surplus",
   "sector": "Consumables — regulated",
   "group": "flagged",
   "overlap": "Adjacent: Short-dated food closeouts — the reagent/device version",
   "structural_fit": 81.5,
   "gate_multiplier": 0.9,
   "perimeter": "",
   "perimeter_multiplier": 0.7,
   "actionable_score": 51.3,
   "access": 1,
   "scale": "Unverified — fragmented catalogue-style resellers; XS Supply '$2M+ recovered for 500+ facilities' (cumulative).",
   "data": "No price index; retail list prices as comps; no closed-lot archive.",
   "menu": "Lot (SKU × lot number × expiry × storage condition × qty) × offer",
   "consumption": 3,
   "risk": "Scale unverified; expiry makes abstention decisive; licensing per state; expired product cannot go to clinical use.",
   "experiment": "Surplus reseller's ledger (offers received, accepted, expiry, sale date); test expiry-aware sizing.",
   "logistics": 3,
   "density": 1,
   "longtail": 3,
   "breadth": 3,
   "partial_obs": 2,
   "cadence": 3,
   "ops_dependence": 3,
   "gate_menu": "Y",
   "gate_outcome": "Y",
   "gate_constraints": "Y",
   "gate_feedback": "P",
   "reject_reasons": "Time · Scale · Complexity",
   "sales_tape": "Buy → cold-chain → sale to licensed buyer before expiry → expired write-off (training/research only)",
   "confidence": "low",
   "sources": "https://xs-supply.com/pages/sell | https://simasgovlaw.com/dont-get-caught-without-a-california-pharmacy-wholesaler-license/ | https://www.labx.com/categories/reagents-and-synthesis"
  },
  {
   "rank": 51,
   "id": "ipv4",
   "name": "IPv4 lease brokerage (exploratory)",
   "sector": "Digital infrastructure",
   "group": "t3",
   "overlap": "Adjacent: Wholesale bandwidth and transit; Expiring domain drops — address blocks are new",
   "structural_fit": 55.6,
   "gate_multiplier": 0.9,
   "perimeter": "",
   "perimeter_multiplier": 1.0,
   "actionable_score": 50.0,
   "access": 3,
   "scale": "June 2026: avg $21.49/IP sale price (−24% YoY), ~580k IPs traded in the month (IPv4Center headline); /16 below $20/IP since June 2025; leases ~$0.40/IP/month (IPXO 2025), APNIC region >$0.60.",
   "data": "IPXO price history; IPv4.Global prior-sales data; CircleID trend posts; no formal API.",
   "menu": "Block (size × RIR × reputation × routeability) × term × $/IP/month × lease / pass",
   "consumption": 1,
   "risk": "Thinner than freight, no logistics, drifting exchange-like as transparency rises; blocklist and geolocation lag hidden; RIR policy variance.",
   "experiment": "Research-only: replay a lessor's 24 months of listings, offers declined and realised utilisation/abuse.",
   "logistics": 0,
   "density": 2,
   "longtail": 2,
   "breadth": 2,
   "partial_obs": 2,
   "cadence": 2,
   "ops_dependence": 1,
   "gate_menu": "Y",
   "gate_outcome": "Y",
   "gate_constraints": "Y",
   "gate_feedback": "P",
   "reject_reasons": "Attention · Prediction",
   "sales_tape": "Lease → announce → abuse/blocklist events → renewals / default → return",
   "confidence": "medium-high (prices)",
   "sources": "https://circleid.com/posts/2025-ipv4-price-trends-2026-predictions | https://www.ipxo.com/blog/ipv4-price-history/"
  },
  {
   "rank": 52,
   "id": "finewine",
   "name": "Fine wine & rare spirits secondary market (Liv-ex, WineBid, auctions)",
   "sector": "Consumables — regulated",
   "group": "t2",
   "overlap": "New",
   "structural_fit": 70.4,
   "gate_multiplier": 1.0,
   "perimeter": "",
   "perimeter_multiplier": 0.7,
   "actionable_score": 49.3,
   "access": 1,
   "scale": "Liv-ex 500–620 merchants in 42–47 countries; 16,000+ tradable wines; ~£100M live bids/offers (2018); LWIN 200,000+ wines & spirits; WineBid 'thousands of new bottles each week'.",
   "data": "Liv-ex 50/100/1000 indices; LWIN (CC licence); Liv-ex APIs (tiered, no scraping); WineBid/auction archives public per lot.",
   "menu": "Wine (LWIN × vintage × format × case/bottle × condition/provenance) × qty × bid/offer",
   "consumption": 2,
   "risk": "Membership at committee discretion; alcohol licensing; provenance/counterfeit only at physical check-in; cask market rife with fraud (flag).",
   "experiment": "Use a Liv-ex data membership + WineBid archive to build 24 months of menus incl. lots not won; shadow-score a merchant's buys; exclude casks entirely.",
   "logistics": 2,
   "density": 2,
   "longtail": 3,
   "breadth": 3,
   "partial_obs": 2,
   "cadence": 2,
   "ops_dependence": 2,
   "gate_menu": "Y",
   "gate_outcome": "Y",
   "gate_constraints": "Y",
   "gate_feedback": "Y",
   "reject_reasons": "Prediction · Attention · Complexity",
   "sales_tape": "Buy in bond → storage → sale to trade/collector over weeks–months → condition disputes",
   "confidence": "medium-high",
   "sources": "https://www.liv-ex.com/liv-ex-membership-terms/ | https://www.liv-ex.com/lwin/ | https://www.winebid.com/Help/WhyWineBid | https://www.thedrinksbusiness.com/2025/03/calls-mount-to-regulate-sham-scammer-whisky-cask-investment-industry/"
  },
  {
   "rank": 53,
   "id": "str",
   "name": "Short-term-rental arbitrage (lease-to-list units)",
   "sector": "Real-estate ops — regulated",
   "group": "flagged",
   "overlap": "Adjacent: Peer storage and parking leasing; Equipment and vehicle rental flipping",
   "structural_fit": 77.8,
   "gate_multiplier": 0.9,
   "perimeter": "",
   "perimeter_multiplier": 0.7,
   "actionable_score": 49.0,
   "access": 1,
   "scale": "AirDNA tracks 12,074 US markets; candidate menu = rental listings × market (Zillow/Apartments.com).",
   "data": "AirDNA (free market pages: occupancy, ADR, RevPAR; paid comps/API); AirROI; Inside Airbnb; city registries.",
   "menu": "Unit (address × rent × lease term × furnishing cost × permit status) × lease / pass",
   "consumption": 3,
   "risk": "City-by-city rules change under a 12-month lease (constraints not stable); 12-month cadence; HyperC would flag like reservation arbitrage.",
   "experiment": "Only after counsel; operator with 50+ units' lease decisions + AirDNA + realised P&L.",
   "logistics": 2,
   "density": 2,
   "longtail": 3,
   "breadth": 3,
   "partial_obs": 3,
   "cadence": 1,
   "ops_dependence": 3,
   "gate_menu": "Y",
   "gate_outcome": "Y",
   "gate_constraints": "Y",
   "gate_feedback": "P",
   "reject_reasons": "Prediction · Complexity · Capacity",
   "sales_tape": "Lease → furnish → nightly bookings → occupancy taxes → damage → regulatory change → lease exit",
   "confidence": "medium",
   "sources": "https://www.rakidzich.com/articles/is-airbnb-rental-arbitrage-legal-state-by-state-guide-2026 | https://www.airdna.co/vacation-rental-data/app/us | https://www.bnbcalc.com/blog/short-term-rental-regulation/new-york-city-guide"
  },
  {
   "rank": 53,
   "id": "aginputs",
   "name": "Ag-input dealer inventory (seed / fertilizer / crop protection)",
   "sector": "Agri distribution — regulated",
   "group": "core",
   "overlap": "Adjacent: Procurement; Trade credit and payment terms — the ag-retail menu is new",
   "structural_fit": 77.8,
   "gate_multiplier": 0.9,
   "perimeter": "",
   "perimeter_multiplier": 0.7,
   "actionable_score": 49.0,
   "access": 1,
   "scale": "CropLife 100 (2021): top 10 retailers = 3,288 facilities (68%); Nutrien ~1,000 outlets; total US outlets often cited 6,000–7,000 (unverified).",
   "data": "DTN weekly retail fertilizer survey (8 products); USDA NASS prices-paid indexes; no seed/crop-protection retail benchmark.",
   "menu": "SKU (product × pack × season × supplier program) × qty × prepay/spot price × farm-credit terms",
   "consumption": 3,
   "risk": "Seasonal regime shifts (one menu per season); licences and EPA rules; dealer cost hidden in rebates; farm credit risk; months-scale loop.",
   "experiment": "Enterprise lane with a multi-outlet retailer: 3 seasons of buys, carryover and sell-through; shadow-score prebuy sizing.",
   "logistics": 2,
   "density": 2,
   "longtail": 3,
   "breadth": 3,
   "partial_obs": 3,
   "cadence": 1,
   "ops_dependence": 3,
   "gate_menu": "Y",
   "gate_outcome": "Y",
   "gate_constraints": "Y",
   "gate_feedback": "P",
   "reject_reasons": "Prediction · Complexity · Capacity",
   "sales_tape": "Order → season sales on credit → carryover/returns → rebates → write-downs; collections",
   "confidence": "medium",
   "sources": "https://www.croplife.com/croplife-top-100/top-10-ag-retailers-with-the-most-locations/ | https://www.nass.usda.gov/Charts_and_Maps/Agricultural_Prices/prod1.php"
  },
  {
   "rank": 55,
   "id": "medeq",
   "name": "Used medical & imaging equipment (DOTmed, Centurion/Bidspotter)",
   "sector": "Equipment — regulated",
   "group": "flagged",
   "overlap": "New (regulated commerce)",
   "structural_fit": 74.1,
   "gate_multiplier": 0.9,
   "perimeter": "",
   "perimeter_multiplier": 0.7,
   "actionable_score": 46.7,
   "access": 1,
   "scale": "DOTmed: 375k+ registered users, 'thousands of new listings/month'; Centurion 100+ auctions/yr.",
   "data": "DOTmed asking prices; Bidspotter/Centurion prior results (login); no public index.",
   "menu": "Unit (modality × model × service history × software licence × removal) × bid",
   "consumption": 1,
   "risk": "Regulatory: FDA refurbisher vs remanufacturer, HIPAA data, state radiation registration; months-long cycle; tube/detector life hidden.",
   "experiment": "Enterprise-only with a refurbisher; counsel review of resale licensing first.",
   "logistics": 3,
   "density": 2,
   "longtail": 3,
   "breadth": 3,
   "partial_obs": 3,
   "cadence": 1,
   "ops_dependence": 3,
   "gate_menu": "Y",
   "gate_outcome": "Y",
   "gate_constraints": "Y",
   "gate_feedback": "P",
   "reject_reasons": "Complexity · Capacity · Prediction",
   "sales_tape": "Win → de-install (radiation/magnet) → refurb → sale to licensed buyer over weeks–months",
   "confidence": "medium",
   "sources": "https://www.dotmed.com/features/stats.html | https://centurionservice.com/buying/medical-auction-bidding | https://relinkonline.com/blogs/homepage/navigating-regulatory-compliance-when-selling-used-medical-devices-what-vendors-need-to-know-in-2026"
  },
  {
   "rank": 56,
   "id": "parallel",
   "name": "Parallel-import / grey-market distribution (fragrance, cosmetics, small electronics)",
   "sector": "Commerce — IP-flagged",
   "group": "flagged",
   "overlap": "Adjacent: Discontinued cosmetics and fragrance; Distributor excess inventory — grey import angle is new",
   "structural_fit": 85.2,
   "gate_multiplier": 0.9,
   "perimeter": "",
   "perimeter_multiplier": 0.6,
   "actionable_score": 46.0,
   "access": 2,
   "scale": "No aggregate volume data; categories: fragrance, cosmetics, small electronics, luxury; pharma excluded.",
   "data": "Amazon/Keepa price history; eBay sold; no grey-market index.",
   "menu": "SKU (brand × product × batch/market version × source) × units × landed cost × channel",
   "consumption": 3,
   "risk": "Legal boundary: Tariff Act §526 / Lever rule (materially different goods excluded), Lanham Act material-differences test, EU regional exhaustion; marketplace gating — HyperC should flag under API Terms.",
   "experiment": "Counsel review first; then restrict to non-materially-different, non-gated categories; test on eBay-channel ledger only.",
   "logistics": 2,
   "density": 2,
   "longtail": 3,
   "breadth": 3,
   "partial_obs": 3,
   "cadence": 2,
   "ops_dependence": 3,
   "gate_menu": "Y",
   "gate_outcome": "Y",
   "gate_constraints": "Y",
   "gate_feedback": "P",
   "reject_reasons": "Complexity · Attention · Prediction",
   "sales_tape": "Import → listing → sale → IP takedown / stranded inventory → returns",
   "confidence": "medium (law high; scale low)",
   "sources": "https://www.mayerbrown.com/en/insights/publications/2025/10/navigating-the-gray-market-landscape | https://goaura.com/blog/amazon-top-restricted-brands-in-2025"
  },
  {
   "rank": 57,
   "id": "bulkwine",
   "name": "Bulk wine & grape lots (California brokerage)",
   "sector": "Consumables — regulated",
   "group": "industrial",
   "overlap": "New",
   "structural_fit": 70.4,
   "gate_multiplier": 0.9,
   "perimeter": "",
   "perimeter_multiplier": 0.7,
   "actionable_score": 44.4,
   "access": 1,
   "scale": "29.2M gal actively for sale statewide (Turrentine, Mar 2026); 2025 crush 2.62M t (lowest since 1999); lot counts unpublished.",
   "data": "Turrentine Market Update (free monthly); Ciatti report (paid); USDA/CDFA Grape Crush Report; WineBusiness bulk classifieds. Napa Cab $10–19/gal, CA Chardonnay <$5/gal.",
   "menu": "Lot (varietal × appellation × vintage × lab profile) × gallons × $/gal",
   "consumption": 3,
   "risk": "Bonded-premises gate; months-long realisation; buyer's market until ~2027–28 = strong drift regime; declined lots only via broker snapshots.",
   "experiment": "Enterprise lane with a négociant: 3 years of bulk buys + passes + bottled sell-through; test P34 abstention under the 2024–26 oversupply drift.",
   "logistics": 2,
   "density": 1,
   "longtail": 3,
   "breadth": 2,
   "partial_obs": 3,
   "cadence": 1,
   "ops_dependence": 3,
   "gate_menu": "Y",
   "gate_outcome": "Y",
   "gate_constraints": "Y",
   "gate_feedback": "P",
   "reject_reasons": "Complexity · Capacity · Prediction",
   "sales_tape": "Buy in bond → transfer → blend/bottle → distribution sale over months → unsold write-down",
   "confidence": "medium-high (supply/prices) / low (margins)",
   "sources": "https://www.turrentinebrokerage.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/03/Turrentine-Market-Update-3-26.pdf | https://www.ecfr.gov/current/title-27/chapter-I/subchapter-A/part-24/subpart-D | https://www.pressdemocrat.com/2026/01/23/wine-business-forecast-grapes-turrentine-moramarco-vinoshipper/"
  },
  {
   "rank": 57,
   "id": "carbon",
   "name": "Voluntary carbon credits & RECs (retirement-driven)",
   "sector": "Environmental commodities",
   "group": "core",
   "overlap": "New",
   "structural_fit": 70.4,
   "gate_multiplier": 0.9,
   "perimeter": "",
   "perimeter_multiplier": 0.7,
   "actionable_score": 44.4,
   "access": 2,
   "scale": "168M credits retired in 2025 (the consumption sink); 22,000+ projects × vintages × methodologies; CBL 300M t cumulative; $12.3B forward offtakes announced 2025 at ~$180/t avg.",
   "data": "Verra/GS public registries (issuance & retirement); Sylvera/BeZero/Calyx ratings (paid); Xpansiv market data + API; Platts assessments.",
   "menu": "Line (project × vintage × methodology × rating × CCP/CORSIA label × qty) × bid / offer",
   "consumption": 3,
   "risk": "Price dispersion $2 to >$50 within one type; integrity events reprice held inventory; CFTC anti-fraud authority; commodity-regulated (CFTC anti-fraud), not securities — treat as a gated launch; no logistics/ops moat.",
   "experiment": "Research-only: replay registry issuance/retirement + rating changes 2022–25 against a trader's book; test abstention before integrity downgrades.",
   "logistics": 0,
   "density": 2,
   "longtail": 3,
   "breadth": 3,
   "partial_obs": 3,
   "cadence": 2,
   "ops_dependence": 1,
   "gate_menu": "Y",
   "gate_outcome": "Y",
   "gate_constraints": "Y",
   "gate_feedback": "P",
   "reject_reasons": "Prediction · Attention · Complexity",
   "sales_tape": "Buy → hold → resale or retirement → rating reassessment / methodology downgrade write-down",
   "confidence": "medium",
   "sources": "https://verra.org/new-verra-program-fee-schedule-faqs/ | https://www.sylvera.com/blog/sylvera-state-of-carbon-credits-2025-market-shifts-from-volume-to-value | https://www.xpansiv.com/trading-platforms/cbl | https://www.morganlewis.com/pubs/2024/09/cftc-issues-final-guidance-on-listing-voluntary-carbon-credit-derivative-contracts"
  },
  {
   "rank": 57,
   "id": "catalyst",
   "name": "Spent industrial catalyst / PGM reclaim (toll refining)",
   "sector": "Industrial recovery — regulated",
   "group": "industrial",
   "overlap": "Adjacent: Scrap metal and e-waste recovery — assay-uncertainty market is new",
   "structural_fit": 70.4,
   "gate_multiplier": 0.9,
   "perimeter": "",
   "perimeter_multiplier": 0.7,
   "actionable_score": 44.4,
   "access": 1,
   "scale": "Lot sizes and volumes unverified.",
   "data": "PGM references (LBMA/JM) standard but not confirmed in source; refiner terms private.",
   "menu": "Lot (catalyst type × est. PGM content × hazmat class × refiner terms) × buy / toll / pass",
   "consumption": 2,
   "risk": "Assay uncertainty is the market; RCRA K171/K172 listings and 40 CFR 266 Subpart F; months of capital lock; feedback slow.",
   "experiment": "Enterprise lane with a refiner or aggregator: lots received/declined, estimated vs assayed content, settlement.",
   "logistics": 3,
   "density": 1,
   "longtail": 3,
   "breadth": 2,
   "partial_obs": 3,
   "cadence": 1,
   "ops_dependence": 3,
   "gate_menu": "Y",
   "gate_outcome": "Y",
   "gate_constraints": "Y",
   "gate_feedback": "P",
   "reject_reasons": "Complexity · Capacity · Prediction",
   "sales_tape": "Purchase → shipment (RCRA manifest) → sampling → assay → settlement 60–180 days (per brief; unverified) → treatment charges",
   "confidence": "medium (mechanics) / low (terms)",
   "sources": "https://www.digitalrefining.com/article/1000660/recoup-money-from-your-spent-catalyst | https://www.govinfo.gov/content/pkg/CFR-2024-title40-vol29/pdf/CFR-2024-title40-vol29-sec266-70.pdf"
  },
  {
   "rank": 60,
   "id": "tradeshow",
   "name": "Trade-show / exhibit teardown surplus",
   "sector": "Equipment",
   "group": "t2",
   "overlap": "Adjacent: Office clearance lots; Hotel FF&E liquidations",
   "structural_fit": 74.1,
   "gate_multiplier": 0.54,
   "perimeter": "",
   "perimeter_multiplier": 1.0,
   "actionable_score": 40.0,
   "access": 3,
   "scale": "'Thousands' of booths, counters, kiosks listed; no exact counts; no price index.",
   "data": "None public; listing prices only.",
   "menu": "Lot (booth/hardware × condition × graphics-refit cost × venue × teardown deadline) × bid / pass",
   "consumption": 1,
   "risk": "Sporadic, event-driven supply; declined lots rarely recorded; condition and completeness unstandardised.",
   "experiment": "Exhibit house's 3 years of teardown buys; likely too sparse for floors — blueprint only.",
   "logistics": 3,
   "density": 1,
   "longtail": 3,
   "breadth": 2,
   "partial_obs": 2,
   "cadence": 2,
   "ops_dependence": 3,
   "gate_menu": "Y",
   "gate_outcome": "P",
   "gate_constraints": "Y",
   "gate_feedback": "N",
   "reject_reasons": "Time · Capacity",
   "sales_tape": "Buy → haul at show close → refit → resale or scrap branded skins",
   "confidence": "medium (access) / low (pricing)",
   "sources": "https://usedbooths.com/how-it-works/"
  },
  {
   "rank": 61,
   "id": "filmprops",
   "name": "Film/TV prop & set-dressing liquidation",
   "sector": "Collectibles / furniture",
   "group": "t2",
   "overlap": "Adjacent: Small regional estate auctions; Office clearance lots",
   "structural_fit": 70.4,
   "gate_multiplier": 0.54,
   "perimeter": "",
   "perimeter_multiplier": 1.0,
   "actionable_score": 38.0,
   "access": 2,
   "scale": "No sales totals; wrap-driven supply; no price index (Propstore/Heritage results are the comps).",
   "data": "Auction results per lot; no API.",
   "menu": "Lot (item × provenance/screen-match × condition × pickup window) × bid / pass",
   "consumption": 1,
   "risk": "Provenance is the hidden variable (no accepted third-party authentication); sporadic supply; declined lots rarely recorded.",
   "experiment": "Prop dealer's 3 years of buys; blueprint only.",
   "logistics": 2,
   "density": 1,
   "longtail": 3,
   "breadth": 3,
   "partial_obs": 2,
   "cadence": 2,
   "ops_dependence": 3,
   "gate_menu": "Y",
   "gate_outcome": "P",
   "gate_constraints": "Y",
   "gate_feedback": "N",
   "reject_reasons": "Attention · Capacity",
   "sales_tape": "Win → pickup at lot → resale (collectible or furniture channel) → provenance disputes",
   "confidence": "medium (Propstore) / low (studio supply)",
   "sources": "https://propstore.com/general-faqs/"
  },
  {
   "rank": 62,
   "id": "hotelffe",
   "name": "Hotel FF&E & renovation liquidations",
   "sector": "Equipment",
   "group": "t4",
   "overlap": "Adjacent: Office clearance lots",
   "structural_fit": 66.7,
   "gate_multiplier": 0.54,
   "perimeter": "",
   "perimeter_multiplier": 1.0,
   "actionable_score": 36.0,
   "access": 3,
   "scale": "2025 US hotel transactions 1,528 hotels / 186,925 rooms; 237 flagged for renovation; renovation cycles 5–7 yrs soft goods, 10–12 full.",
   "data": "None public; liquidator showroom prices only.",
   "menu": "Project (hotel × rooms × item mix × removal window × distance) × bid / pass",
   "consumption": 1,
   "risk": "Sporadic supply; hotel nets only $200–300/room ('not going to get rich'); declined projects rarely recorded (gate N).",
   "experiment": "Liquidator's project log for 3 years; probably too sparse for floors — treat as blueprint only.",
   "logistics": 3,
   "density": 1,
   "longtail": 2,
   "breadth": 2,
   "partial_obs": 2,
   "cadence": 1,
   "ops_dependence": 3,
   "gate_menu": "Y",
   "gate_outcome": "P",
   "gate_constraints": "Y",
   "gate_feedback": "N",
   "reject_reasons": "Capacity · Operational fit",
   "sales_tape": "Phased removal → warehouse → showroom / bulk sale over months",
   "confidence": "medium-low",
   "sources": "https://www.costar.com/article/66442661/how-to-handle-a-hotel-liquidation-sale | https://hotelbusiness.com/u-s-hotel-transaction-volume-surges-in-2025-fueling-a-wave-of-renovation-and-conversion-activity/"
  },
  {
   "rank": 62,
   "id": "gamekeys",
   "name": "Game-key & software-licence resale (G2A, Kinguin, Eneba)",
   "sector": "Digital — platform-flagged",
   "group": "flagged",
   "overlap": "Flagged class (cf. Aged social accounts)",
   "structural_fit": 74.1,
   "gate_multiplier": 0.81,
   "perimeter": "",
   "perimeter_multiplier": 0.6,
   "actionable_score": 36.0,
   "access": 3,
   "scale": "G2A: 30M customers, 40,000+ sellers, 75,000+ digital items.",
   "data": "Public list prices; no archive; Kinguin integration API for resellers.",
   "menu": "Key (title × region × source × qty) × buy price × list price",
   "consumption": 2,
   "risk": "Publisher EULAs, documented fraud (tinyBuild, Factorio), revocations; paper boundary: telemetry manipulated by strategic participants.",
   "experiment": "None — flag under API Terms.",
   "logistics": 0,
   "density": 3,
   "longtail": 2,
   "breadth": 3,
   "partial_obs": 3,
   "cadence": 3,
   "ops_dependence": 1,
   "gate_menu": "Y",
   "gate_outcome": "Y",
   "gate_constraints": "P",
   "gate_feedback": "P",
   "reject_reasons": "Time · Attention",
   "sales_tape": "Buy → list → sale → redemption → revocation / chargeback (irreversible) → payout after hold",
   "confidence": "medium",
   "sources": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/G2A | https://kasepo.com/become-merhant-sell-on-kinguin/ | https://www.osborneclarke.com/insights/paris-court-rules-users-may-resell-games-purchased-steam"
  },
  {
   "rank": 64,
   "id": "anilox",
   "name": "Flexo anilox roll / plate-cylinder surplus (exploratory)",
   "sector": "Printing equipment",
   "group": "industrial",
   "overlap": "Adjacent: Spare-parts stocking; Industrial surplus equipment",
   "structural_fit": 59.3,
   "gate_multiplier": 0.54,
   "perimeter": "",
   "perimeter_multiplier": 1.0,
   "actionable_score": 32.0,
   "access": 3,
   "scale": "Very thin; no counts; no pricing reference.",
   "data": "None.",
   "menu": "Roll (LPI × BCM × width × journal/press fit × cell condition) × buy / pass",
   "consumption": 1,
   "risk": "Effectively no market — press-specific fit fragments demand; cell wear unknowable from a listing.",
   "experiment": "None; keep as an exploratory note.",
   "logistics": 2,
   "density": 1,
   "longtail": 2,
   "breadth": 2,
   "partial_obs": 2,
   "cadence": 1,
   "ops_dependence": 2,
   "gate_menu": "Y",
   "gate_outcome": "P",
   "gate_constraints": "Y",
   "gate_feedback": "N",
   "reject_reasons": "Scale · Attention",
   "sales_tape": "Buy → cell inspection → resale to a matching press owner",
   "confidence": "medium (that it is thin)",
   "sources": "https://www.machinio.com/cat/anilox-rolls"
  },
  {
   "rank": 65,
   "id": "regcf",
   "name": "Reg CF / angel-syndicate deal selection",
   "sector": "Venture — securities",
   "group": "flagged",
   "overlap": "Separate perimeter class (like Alt-coin hedge fund / Thin public equities)",
   "structural_fit": 66.7,
   "gate_multiplier": 1.0,
   "perimeter": "",
   "perimeter_multiplier": 0.4,
   "actionable_score": 26.7,
   "access": 2,
   "scale": "Reg CF 2025: $378.3M raised, 1,006 new offerings (−29%), 67.4% hit target, median equity raise $194k, avg 285 investors; AngelList claims 25,000 syndicates & funds.",
   "data": "KingsCrowd ratings/market data; SEC Form C/C-U on EDGAR (failed offerings public); AngelList data private to members.",
   "menu": "Offering (issuer × terms × valuation × platform × close date) × invest / pass × amount",
   "consumption": 3,
   "risk": "Securities perimeter (excluded from membership/profit-share); feedback arrives years after regime change (paper boundary); low ops leverage.",
   "experiment": "Research-only: backtest KingsCrowd/EDGAR 2016–2020 cohorts for follow-on/failure; do not operate under membership.",
   "logistics": 0,
   "density": 2,
   "longtail": 3,
   "breadth": 3,
   "partial_obs": 3,
   "cadence": 1,
   "ops_dependence": 1,
   "gate_menu": "Y",
   "gate_outcome": "Y",
   "gate_constraints": "Y",
   "gate_feedback": "Y",
   "reject_reasons": "Prediction · Attention",
   "sales_tape": "Invest → 12-month resale restriction → follow-on rounds / failure over 5–10 years",
   "confidence": "high (Reg CF) / medium (AngelList)",
   "sources": "https://kingscrowd.com/2025-investment-crowdfunding-annual-report/ | https://www.angellist.com/syndicates | https://www.joinarc.com/guides/angel-syndicate"
  },
  {
   "rank": 66,
   "id": "royalties",
   "name": "Music-royalty & creator-catalog auctions/advances (Royalty Exchange, SongVest, Spotter)",
   "sector": "IP finance",
   "group": "t3",
   "overlap": "Adjacent: Kindle and audiobook backlist rights (Tier 3)",
   "structural_fit": 55.6,
   "gate_multiplier": 1.0,
   "perimeter": "",
   "perimeter_multiplier": 0.4,
   "actionable_score": 22.2,
   "access": 3,
   "scale": "Royalty Exchange cumulative $200M / 2,000+ transactions, 30k investors (listings/month ~20–40, unverified); SongVest 185 offerings.",
   "data": "Per-listing LTM earnings + 3–5 yr statements; observed multiples 4.57–9.9× LTM; SongVest collections dashboard; auction archive shows lots not won.",
   "menu": "Catalog (asset type × LTM × dollar age × term) × bid",
   "consumption": 1,
   "risk": "Securities status ambiguous (SongVest explicitly securities); thin flow (≈1/day); quarterly feedback.",
   "experiment": "Research-only backtest of Royalty Exchange archive vs subsequent distributions.",
   "logistics": 0,
   "density": 1,
   "longtail": 3,
   "breadth": 2,
   "partial_obs": 3,
   "cadence": 1,
   "ops_dependence": 1,
   "gate_menu": "Y",
   "gate_outcome": "Y",
   "gate_constraints": "Y",
   "gate_feedback": "Y",
   "reject_reasons": "Prediction · Attention",
   "sales_tape": "Assignment (~1 month) → quarterly/biannual distributions → decay",
   "confidence": "medium-high",
   "sources": "https://royaltyexchange.com/faq | https://altstreet.investments/platforms/reviews/songvest | https://www.spotter.com/creator-capital"
  },
  {
   "rank": 67,
   "id": "hotels",
   "name": "Hotel room wholesale / bed-bank distressed inventory",
   "sector": "Travel capacity",
   "group": "flagged",
   "overlap": "Adjacent: Reservation arbitrage (flagged)",
   "structural_fit": 63.0,
   "gate_multiplier": 0.81,
   "perimeter": "",
   "perimeter_multiplier": 0.1,
   "actionable_score": 5.1,
   "access": 0,
   "scale": "Hotelbeds 180k hotels; WebBeds 365k+; hotel × date × room type = millions of cells.",
   "data": "Live availability via API only after contract; public OTA prices as comps.",
   "menu": "Room-night (hotel × date × room type × rate × cancellation terms) × buy",
   "consumption": 3,
   "risk": "Access effectively closed (contract bans) → boundary example: perfect menu, inaccessible.",
   "experiment": "None for membership; only as an enterprise lane with an accredited agency.",
   "logistics": 0,
   "density": 3,
   "longtail": 2,
   "breadth": 3,
   "partial_obs": 2,
   "cadence": 3,
   "ops_dependence": 1,
   "gate_menu": "Y",
   "gate_outcome": "Y",
   "gate_constraints": "P",
   "gate_feedback": "P",
   "reject_reasons": "Time · Attention",
   "sales_tape": "Book → stay → cancellations/no-shows/chargebacks → monthly commission",
   "confidence": "medium",
   "sources": "https://hoteltechreport.com/news/hotel-bed-banks | https://developer.hotelbeds.com/documentation/activities/knowledge-base/certification/"
  }
 ],
 "reconciliation": [
  {
   "ref": "A1",
   "proposed": "Truckload / DAT-style freight spot and backhaul",
   "verdict": "In catalogue",
   "maps_to": "Truckload boards; Backhaul matching (capacity group)",
   "note": "Boundary noted: menus expire while a fit runs; one accept kills neighbours → rolling re-score; boards need broker/carrier authority. Car-hauling row covers the vehicle sub-market."
  },
  {
   "ref": "A2",
   "proposed": "Short-dated food / produce wholesale closeouts",
   "verdict": "In catalogue + in list",
   "maps_to": "Short-dated food closeouts (catalogue); Fresh produce terminal wholesale (row 'produce')",
   "note": "Terminal wholesale kept as the additional angle; food-safety licensing (PACA) and spoilage noted in the row."
  },
  {
   "ref": "A3",
   "proposed": "B2B distributor excess / closeout inventory",
   "verdict": "In catalogue",
   "maps_to": "Distributor excess inventory; Closeout merchandise; Liquidation and B-stock pallets",
   "note": "Boundaries (bad manifests, channel restrictions, optimistic MSRP) already in catalogue notes."
  },
  {
   "ref": "A4",
   "proposed": "Energy demand-response curtailment",
   "verdict": "In catalogue",
   "maps_to": "Demand-response curtailment (infra group)",
   "note": "ISO/utility registration and production-loss attribution are the catalogue's stated risks."
  },
  {
   "ref": "A5",
   "proposed": "Returned-goods / reverse-logistics grading",
   "verdict": "In catalogue",
   "maps_to": "Returned-goods resale; Refurbished electronics",
   "note": "Historical grade-out rates and no double-counting intact vs parted units — matches E2 'Repair-or-part-out desk'."
  },
  {
   "ref": "A6",
   "proposed": "LTL consolidation and warehouse overflow",
   "verdict": "In catalogue",
   "maps_to": "Partial-truckload consolidation; Warehouse overflow space",
   "note": "Search-space explosion and sparse terminal cost data noted in catalogue."
  },
  {
   "ref": "A7",
   "proposed": "Used cooking oil / waste-oil collection routes",
   "verdict": "Added",
   "maps_to": "Row 'uco'",
   "note": "New; sticky incumbents and permitting are the binding constraints."
  },
  {
   "ref": "A8",
   "proposed": "Mill-end textiles / flexible-packaging film remnants",
   "verdict": "Added",
   "maps_to": "Row 'millends'",
   "note": "New; film-remnant marketplace claim unverified — textile side characterised."
  },
  {
   "ref": "A9",
   "proposed": "Architectural salvage / reclaimed building materials",
   "verdict": "Added",
   "maps_to": "Row 'archsalvage'",
   "note": "New; adjacent to Construction material surplus (which is new excess)."
  },
  {
   "ref": "A10",
   "proposed": "Intermodal chassis / trailer / reefer spot rental",
   "verdict": "Added",
   "maps_to": "Row 'chassis'",
   "note": "New; pool access gated by UIIA; DCLI rates verified."
  },
  {
   "ref": "A11",
   "proposed": "Ag-input dealer inventory (seed / fertilizer / chem)",
   "verdict": "Added",
   "maps_to": "Row 'aginputs'",
   "note": "New; regulated-commerce perimeter; seasonal loop."
  },
  {
   "ref": "A12",
   "proposed": "IPv4 lease brokerage",
   "verdict": "Added (exploratory)",
   "maps_to": "Row 'ipv4'",
   "note": "New; low logistics, drifting exchange-like; prices verified."
  },
  {
   "ref": "B1",
   "proposed": "Inland barge spot capacity",
   "verdict": "Added",
   "maps_to": "Row 'barge'",
   "note": "New; USDA GTR and agtransport datasets are the public feed."
  },
  {
   "ref": "B2",
   "proposed": "Biomass wood-chip / pellet spot",
   "verdict": "Added",
   "maps_to": "Row 'biomass'",
   "note": "New; BALTPOOL auction results are a natural declined-option record; scale data 2021-vintage."
  },
  {
   "ref": "B3",
   "proposed": "Municipal / institutional surplus as one portfolio",
   "verdict": "In list",
   "maps_to": "Row 'govsurplus' (rank 1)",
   "note": "Public Surplus and Municibid folded into the row; seller set modelled as one reject menu."
  },
  {
   "ref": "B4",
   "proposed": "Short-dated medical / pharma",
   "verdict": "In list",
   "maps_to": "Row 'labcons'",
   "note": "PharmaTradz, RxOneShop, GSA medical lots and the VAWD gate folded into the row."
  },
  {
   "ref": "B5",
   "proposed": "Printing paper stocklots / side-runs",
   "verdict": "Added",
   "maps_to": "Row 'paperstock'",
   "note": "New; Go2Paper fees verified; lots/prices unverified."
  },
  {
   "ref": "B6",
   "proposed": "Traditional media remnant (TV / radio / print / static OOH)",
   "verdict": "Added",
   "maps_to": "Row 'mediaremnant'",
   "note": "New; kept offline-only — DOOH overlaps the catalogue's demand group."
  },
  {
   "ref": "B7",
   "proposed": "Used lab / biopharma equipment",
   "verdict": "In list",
   "maps_to": "Row 'labeq'",
   "note": "Public Surplus university lots folded in; consumption weak unless paired with reagents/service (row 'labcons')."
  },
  {
   "ref": "B8",
   "proposed": "Trade-show / exhibit teardown surplus",
   "verdict": "Added",
   "maps_to": "Row 'tradeshow'",
   "note": "New; sporadic supply, declined lots rarely recorded."
  },
  {
   "ref": "B9",
   "proposed": "DDGS / ethanol co-product spot",
   "verdict": "Added",
   "maps_to": "Row 'ddgs'",
   "note": "New; USDA AMS_3618 weekly report is the public feed; relationship-heavy."
  },
  {
   "ref": "B10",
   "proposed": "Spent industrial catalyst / PGM reclaim",
   "verdict": "Added",
   "maps_to": "Row 'catalyst'",
   "note": "New; assay uncertainty is the market; RCRA; 60–180 day capital lock."
  },
  {
   "ref": "B11",
   "proposed": "Off-spec chemicals / glycol reclaim",
   "verdict": "In catalogue — not added",
   "maps_to": "Industrial by-products and side streams",
   "note": "Per your note: narrow entry into the catalogue's chemical by-products, not a fresh thesis."
  },
  {
   "ref": "B12",
   "proposed": "Film/TV prop & set-dressing liquidation",
   "verdict": "Added",
   "maps_to": "Row 'filmprops'",
   "note": "New; weak on consumption; provenance is the hidden variable."
  },
  {
   "ref": "B13",
   "proposed": "Flexo anilox / plate-cylinder surplus",
   "verdict": "Added (exploratory)",
   "maps_to": "Row 'anilox'",
   "note": "New; effectively no market — kept as a note."
  }
 ]
}